744
FXCA20 KWBC 201911
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 20 OCT 2023 AT 1900 UTC: IN THE CARIBBEAN...A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...INTO
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...WESTERN CUBA...AND NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PROPAGATING EAST...AND WEAKEN BY SUNDAY
EVENING. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER HISPANIOLA
ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST BY SUNDAY. TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN HONDURAS AND CONTINUE
TO FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST AND
WEAKENS...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY SUNDAY.
ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHER BAHAMAS CAN EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...WITH MAXIMA OF 30-60MM AND A SLIGHT RISK OF
SQUALLY WEATHER. NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. ON SATURDAY...THE AMOUNTS DECREASE OVER THE
BAHAMAS...WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FORECAST. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. NORTHERN HONDURAS CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONS ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...A ROBUST TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER
PANAMA AND IT IS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...AND COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM A
KELVIN WAVE OVER THE REGION...WILL BRING HEAVY AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION TO PANAMA AND PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ON
FRIDAY...EXTREME SOUTHEAST COSTA RICA...SOUTHWEST PANAMA...AND
WESTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. ELSEWHERE IN COSTA
RICA...PANAMA AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ON SATURDAY...CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
75-125MM FROM PUNTA ARENAS IN COSTA RICA TO VERAGUAS IN PANAMA.
THE REST OF COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
40-80MM...WHILE WESTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
30-80MM. ON SUNDAY...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF
40-80MM IN EASTERN COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA...AND GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN COSTA RICA...AND EASTERN
PANAMA.
ON FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FOLLOWING HURRICANE
NORMA...LOCATED NEAR 19.4N AND 109.2W AT 1500 UTC. NORMA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY
SATURDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST TOWARDS NORTH SINALOA ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ON FRIDAY...SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IS
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 75-150MM...WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. WESTERN SINALOA TO COLIMA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY PRECIPITATION...WITH MAXIMA OF 75-125MM
EXPECTED...AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. WESTERN NORTH SINALOA COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 30-60MM AND
SOUTHERN SINALOA COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON
SUNDAY...EASTERN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND WESTERN NORTH
SINALOA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ALSO FOLLOWING HURRICANE
TAMMY...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 14.1N AND 58.6W AT 1500 UTC. TAMMY
IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND IMPACT THE
NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ON
FRIDAY...THE LESSER ANTILLES COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM...WHILE THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO COULD SEE
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. ON
SATURDAY...FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO GUADELOUPE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM...WHILE THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO COULD EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAY
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN LESSER
ANTILLES ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE PRESENCE OF THE KELVIN WAVE
PROPAGATING OVER THE REGION WILL FAVOR INCREASED AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE BASE OF A TUTT IS
LOCATED OVER NORTH-WEST VENEZUELA. THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION
AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. ON
FRIDAY...THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION IN VENEZUELA...EASTERN
VENEZUELA...ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON
SATURDAY...THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION CAN EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF
30-60MM...AND ELSEWHERE IN VENEZUELA AND PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON SUNDAY...THE TRADE WINDS ARE
ADVECTING DRIER AIR FROM THE EAST INTO THE REGION. VENEZUELA/NORTH
COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA INTO PERU.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 21/00 21/12 22/00 22/12 23/00 23/12 24/00 24/12
TW 13N 35W 40W 44W 47W 50W 52W 53W 54W 55W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 35W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 13N. IT
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AS IT
PROPAGATES WEST. BY SATURDAY IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY AND
PROPAGATE NORTHWARD. LITTLE TO NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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