919
FXCA20 KWBC 231835
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 23 OCT 2023 AT 1830 UTC: IN MEXICO...A POTENT
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED AROUND 20N AND 95W IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND EXTENDS INTO WESTERN CUBA...NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND JUST WEST OF JALISCO/COLIMA. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS WATCHING TROPICAL STORM
OTIS TO THE SOUTH OF GUERRERO IN THE EAST PACIFIC. THE SYSTEM HAS
A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS GUERRERO. IN THE NORTHWEST...THE
REMNANTS OF NORMA ARE EXPECTED INLAND OVER NORTHERN SINALOA BY
MONDAY NIGHT...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
COUNTRY...DRIER CONDITIONS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY...THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE
REMNANTS FROM NORMA. SONORA AND NORTHERN SINALOA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. IN THE SOUTHERN COAST...TROPICAL STORM OTIS IS LOCATED
CLOSER TO THE GUERRERO SHORE...WHERE EXPECT MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
40-80MM. IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ONSHORE FLOW IS FAVORING
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG QUINTANA ROO...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. FROM WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...OTIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN GUERRERO AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL MAXIMA
OF 40-80MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OFFSHORE EAST
NICARAGUA CONTAINS LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND
ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FAVORING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHEAST NICARAGUA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
60-125MM IN EXTREME NORTHEAST NICARAGUA...AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM
FROM NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE OVER
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER IS WATCHING THIS LOW FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT TO
A TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY TUESDAY...THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NICARAGUA AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN
HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...NICARAGUA...AND COSTA RICA. THE GOLFO DE
FONSECA REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM...WHILE SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA MAY SEE MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. SOUTHERN
HONDURAS...WEST EL SALVADOR...AND NICARAGUA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH
THE PACIFIC OCEAN...JUST WEST OF EL SALVADOR AND THE GOLFO DE
FONSECA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN WESTERN COSTA RICA. ELSEWHERE IN
GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
IN BELIZE AND EASTERN GUATEMALA...THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE
INCREASING SPEED AND FAVORING MORE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST. ON MONDAY...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IS EXPECTED IN NORTHERN
BELIZE. ON TUESDAY...BELIZE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE AREA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...HURRICANE TAMMY IS LOCATED NEAR
21.9N AND 63.9W...NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY ARE REACHING THE PUERTO
RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...AND ST. KITTS AND
NEVIS...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MINIMAL EFFECTS FROM TAMMY ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHERE MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND CUBA...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
MAKING ITS WAY FURTHER EAST AND WILL INTERACT WITH TAMMY AS THE
STORM MOVES FURTHER NORTHWARD. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS...EAST
CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA CAN EXPECT GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...LOW LEVEL TROUGHS INTERACTING WITH THE
ITCZ AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST IN COLOMBIA IS
FAVORING MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. SIMILARLY IN EASTERN
VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN BRAZIL...LOW LEVEL TROUGHS ARE FAVORING
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA. ON MONDAY...NORTHERN COLOMBIA...INTO
THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION IN VENEZUELA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST ECUADOR...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MMM...WESTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. EAST
VENEZUELA...GUYANA...AND NORTHERN RORAIMA-BRASIL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. ON TUESDAY...NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHEAST COLOMBIA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
WESTERN COLOMBIA. WESTERN ECUADOR...CENTRAL COLOMBIA...AND
SOUTHEAST VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA/EXTREME NORTHEAST ECUADOR ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WHILE WEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM. NORTHEAST COLOMBIA INTO NORTHWEST VENEZUELA CAN SEE
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM...WHILE EASTERN VENEZUELA CAN EXPECT SIMILAR
AMOUNTS.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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