193
FXCA20 KWBC 241202
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
802 AM EDT TUE OCT 24 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI OCT 24/12UTC:
ON TUESDAY...A TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS EXTENDS INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND ITS
BASE IS LOCATED WEST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TO THE
NORTH...HURRICANE TAMMY IS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N AND 62.8W AT 0900
UTC. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON
TUESDAY AND BRING GENERALIZED AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
1-1.25 INCHES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL CORDILLERA AND THE
NORTHEAST IN PUERTO RICO. LOWER AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
LATER ON TUESDAY...TAMMY IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN AS THE FRONT CONTINUES IN A
SOUTH AND WEST TRAJECTORY. AN INDUCED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY
IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND EXTEND INTO THE REGION OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...ENHANCED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION.
ADDITIONALLY...THE AREA WILL SEE A GRADUAL AND QUICK INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD. BY FRIDAY...VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BETWEEN THE 2.2-2.4 INCHES IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER. DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PUERTO RICO CAN EXPECT DAILY MAXIMA
BETWEEN 1.5-1.75 INCHES ALONG THE CENTRAL CORDILLERA AND IN THE
NORTHEAST. BY FRIDAY...A SHIFT IN THE TRADE WINDS AS THE INDUCED
TROUGH PASSES THE AREA...AND INCREASE AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF OVER 2 INCHES IN
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. EASTERN PUERTO RICO
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BETWEEN 1.5-2 INCHES. OVER 0.75-1 INCHES OF RAIN
COULD BE OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. FROM VIEQUES...TO THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...EXPECT AMOUNTS OF OVER 2.5 INCHES...WHILE EASTERN PUERTO
RICO COULD EXPECT OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. OVER THE CENTRAL
CORDILLERA...AMOUNTS CAN RANGE FROM 0.5-1.5 INCHES.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page