245
FXCA20 KWBC 241804
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
203 PM EDT TUE OCT 24 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 24 OCT 2023 AT 1830 UTC: ON TUESDAY...A POTENT
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND REACHES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. SOUTHERN
MEXICO IS SEEING THE EFFECTS FROM TROPICAL STORM OTIS...LOCATED
NEAR 14.8N AND 99.1W AT 1500 UTC...SOUTH OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 60-125MM. IN THE
NORTHWEST...OVER THE NORTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...THE
REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORMA ARE INTERACTING WITH A COLD
FRONT IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. A DEEP TROUGH IN THE UPPER
LEVELS IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND MEXICO. THIS
INTERACTION WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION IN SONORA...AND PARTS OF
CHIHUAHUA AND SINALOA. SONORA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE
NORTHER CHIHUAHUA AND NORTHERN SINALOA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE EASTERLY TRADES ARE
ADVECTING MOIST AIR INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE
PENINSULA...FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. MODERATE MAXIMA OF
25-50MM ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
COAST...WHILE MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE EXPECTED INLAND...IN QUINTANA
ROO AND YUCATAN. ON WEDNESDAY...OTIS MAKES LANDFALL INTO
GUERRERO/MICHOACAN...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM AS MOISTURE
FROM OTIS IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD. IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE
EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE AND FAVOR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE REGION. THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE INLAND...MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE
EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY...OTIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW OVER
MICHOACAN. THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. MOISTURE IS ADVECTED FURTHER INLAND...OVER
TABASCO..CHIAPAS...OAXACA...AND VERACRUZ...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.
ALONG CENTRAL AMERICA...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY
ONE ARE LOCATED 13.6N AND 84.8W AT 1500 UTC...OVER EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND IS FAVORING HEAVY PRECIPITATION
IN THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ IS ANOTHER
FACTOR THAT IS CONTRIBUTING TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE
COUNTRIES IN CENTRAL AMERICA. ON MONDAY...THE GOLFO DE FONSECA
REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. SOUTHERN HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. COSTA RICA
AND WESTERN PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.
GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND EASTERN PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A KELVIN WAVE IS APPROACHING
THE REGION AND A MORE ORGANIZED DIVERGENT PULSE OF THE MJO IS
FORECAST TO REACH CENTRAL AMERICA BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FACTORS WILL FAVOR DEEP
CONVECTION AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...WESTERN COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM....WHILE BELIZE...AND THE GOLFO DE FONSECA
REGION...CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. GUATEMALA...WESTERN
HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. THE REST OF THE
REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...WESTERN COSTA
RICA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WHILE BELIZE/CENTRAL
GUATEMALA...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST NICARAGUA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...EASTERN COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...A DEEP THROUGH ALOFT IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA...WITH ITS BASE TO THE WEST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLAND. DRIER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE
NORTHEAST...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND NORTH OF CUBA ON
TUESDAY. HURRICANE TAMMY IS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N AND 62.3W AT 1500
UTC...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA...AND EXTREME EAST CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION...MAXIMA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 25MM.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN AND PROVIDE VENTILATION FOR DEEP CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...AN INDUCED TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DEVELOPS
AND INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FAVOR PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
THURSDAY...EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO/VI CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. MARTINIQUE...ST. LUCIA...BARBADOS...AND ST.
VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE REST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA LESS THAN
25MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WITH LARGE
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FAVORING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. OVER THE
REGION...TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS ARE ADVECTING
MOISTURE AND FAVORING PRECIPITATION OVER
VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...NORTHERN BRASIL...PERU...ECUADOR. THE
TROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE AND TILT
POSITIVELY TOWARDS NORTHERN PANAMA BY THURSDAY. THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE RETROGRADING OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...FAVORING DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
ON TUESDAY...WESTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. SOUTH
VENEZUELA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHERN ECUADOR IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 25MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...WESTERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.
NORTH/CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND EXTREME SOUTH COLOMBIA/NORTH ECUADOR
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. EASTERN VENEZUELA IS FORECAST MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM. ON THURSDAY...WESTERN COLOMBIA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF
50-100MM. CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COLOMBIA CAN SEE MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. EASTERN VENEZUELA CAN SEE MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12 27/00 27/12 28/00 28/12
TW 12N 40W 42W 44W 46W 49W 52W 57W 61W 63W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 40W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. POTENTIAL IMPACT TO LAND
IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY...OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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