894
FXCA20 KWBC 251155
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
755 AM EDT WED OCT 25 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI OCT 25/12UTC:
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS LOCATED
OVER PUERTO RICO/VI AND HISPANIOLA...WITH ITS BASE IN NORTHERN
VENEZUELA ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE TAMMY IS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N AND
60.2W AT 0900 UTC...NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. TAMMY IS INTERACTING
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...PASSING
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...AND NORTH OF CUBA. THIS INTERACTION IS
DEVELOPING AN INDUCED TROUGH/SHEAR LINE-LIKE DISTRUBANCE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE WITH THE VENTILATION FROM THE TROUGH ALOFT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES ON
TUESDAY. THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO CAN EXPECT
AMOUNTS OF 1.25-1.5 INCHES, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL CAN EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 0.72-1.25 INCHES. THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE FORECAST AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.25-0.5 INCHES.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND
BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED...WHILE RETROGRADING TO THE WEST. A WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE WEST OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
BY FRIDAY...AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE IS GOING TO PROVIDE VENTILATION FOR
DEEP CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...THE INDUCED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST...WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH AND A TROPICAL WAVE ARE PROGATING
WESTWARD IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE TROUGHS WILL ARRIVE IN
THE REGION BY THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
FAVORING HEAVY PRECIPATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OVER THE
WEEKEND...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND
2.4 INCHES. BY EARLY NEXT MONDAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPIATION ARE
EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY...SECTORS ALONG THE CENTRAL CORDILLERA...AND
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO CAN EXPECT AMOUNTS AROUND 1.25-1.5 INCHES.
VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 0.5-0.75 INCHES. ON FRIDAY...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE
VIRIGN ISLANDS CAN EXPECT AMOUNTS FROM 2-2.5 INCHES. THE EASTERN
SECTOR OF THE ISLAND CAN EXPECT AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES...WHILE
THE WESTERN PORTION COULD EXPECT AMOUNTS BELOW 1 INCH. AT THE TIME
OF THE FORECAST...SATURDAY SEEMS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISLAND...VIEQUES...AND
CULEBRA...CAN SEE AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE VIRGIN ISLANDS COULD EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
1.75-2.25 INCHES. ALONG THE CENTRAL CORDILLERA...AMOUNTS CAN RANGE
FROM 0.5-1.5 INCHES. FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY...AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
TO DECREASE AS THE WAVES CONTINUE MOVING WEST. THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...CAN SEE AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.75-1.5
INCHES. IN PUERTO RICO...AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 0.75 INCHES.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page