104
FXCA20 KWBC 251804
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
203 PM EDT WED OCT 25 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 25 OCT 2023 AT 1830 UTC: A POTENT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS
INTO CUBA...NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...AND EASTERN MEXICO. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...HURRICANE OTIS MADE LANDFALL IN GUERRERO-MEXICO AND
IS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N AND 100.6W AT 1500 UTC ON WEDNESDAY. OTIS IS
BRINGING MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS...WHERE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL ON WEDNESDAY.
GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...AND THE STATE OF MEXICO COULD EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 50-100MM...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ...PUEBLA...AND OAXACA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN
COAHUILA...A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. NORTHERN COAHUILA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...THE REMNANTS OF OTIS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE FAVORING
PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. FROM THE EAST...THE TRADE WINDS ARE
ADVECTING MOIST AIR INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE
NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL
FAVOR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE VERACRUZ COAST AND MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. MOIST AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED
IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND INTO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. WEST GUERRERO...OAXACA...SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ...AND WEST CHIAPAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL...AND THE EJE VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS MOISTURE
IS MOVING TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE WESTERN EJE
VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...AND
CHIAPAS/TABASCO CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE
COUNTRY...MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY
ONE...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ADVECTING MOISTURE...AND INTERACTION
WITH THE ITCZ...ARE FAVORING HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FOLLOWING THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21 AS IT MAY TRY TO REORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...THE PANAMANIAN LOW IS ORGANIZING AND
FAVORING WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW INTO COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THE
AREA IS SEEING LARGE VALUES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER GREATER THAN 60
MM. THE CFS MODEL IS FORECASTING A MORE ORGANIZED PULSE OF THE MJO
OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE ARRIVAL OF
A KELVIN WAVE BY FRIDAY...INCREASING THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
PROVIDING FURTHER VENTILATION FOR HEAVY CONVECTION. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE
REGION AND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON WEDNESDAY...COSTA RICA
AND WESTERN PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ALONG THE PACIFIC
BASIN OF EACH COUNTRY. BELIZE IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 30-60MM AS THE
TRADE WINDS ARE BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE EAST.
GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR..AND NORTHWEST
NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. AREAS ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW 25MM. PACIFIC REGIONS OF COSTA RICA
AND WEST PANAMA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. THEY CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA...AND
EL SALVADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
HONDURAS AND NORTHEAST NICARAGUA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ON FRIDAY...DARIEN-PANAMA IS FORECAST TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATIONS...MAXIMA OF 60-125MM. THE REST OF PANAMA AND
WESTERN COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. FROM EL
SALVADOR...WESTERN NICARAGUA...INTO NORTHEAST COSTA RICA...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN BELIZE AN
CENTRAL GUATEMALA. EASTERN HONDURAS...EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
AND BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED BY FRIDAY. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN
INDUCED TROUGH FROM HURRICANE TAMMY IN THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...TROUGHS FROM THE EAST ARE MOVING INTO THE
AREA AND WILL BE INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.
ADDITIONALLY...THE EFFECT OF THE DIVERGENT MJO PHASE AND KELVIN
WAVE THAT ARE FORECAST OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY WILL FAVOR DEEP
CONVECTION AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION MOSTLY ON FRIDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
PUERTO RICO/VI AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA BELOW
25MM. ON THURSDAY...EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PUERTO
RICO/VI CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN AMOUNTS OF 20-45MM.
SIMILARLY...THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
WEST DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...FROM EASTERN PUERTO RICO...TO
DOMINICA...MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ARE FORECAST. WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC CAN SEE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION. WESTERN
HISPANIOLA...EAST CUBA...AND JAMAICA ARE FORECAST GENERALIZED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
OVER NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WEST OF THE GUIANAS. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WEST COLOMBIA IS
SEEING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PACIFIC BASIN OF THE COUNTRY
WITH THE ORGANIZATION OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW AND INCREASED AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY...THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS REACHING PORTIONS OF NORTH
VENEZUELA...AND IT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND TURN POSITIVELY
TILTED...WITH ITS BASE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA ON THURSDAY...AND
OVER COSTA RICA/PANAMA ON FRIDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH
THE ITCZ AND PANAMANIAN TROUGH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FURTHERMORE...THE DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO AND A KELVIN WAVE
PROPAGATING OVER THE REGION ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ON WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
40-80MM. SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA CAN SEE MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. SOUTHEAST
VENEZUELA IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. FROM THE LAKE MARACAIBO
REGION IN VENEZUELA...TO CENTRAL COLOMBIA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ON THURSDAY...EXTREME NORTHWEST COLOMBIA IS FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 50-100MM...WHILE WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. NORTHEAST COLOMBIA...NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA...SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...AND NORTH AMAZONAS-BRASIL CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. NORTH VENEZUELA...ECUADOR...AND NORTHERN
PERU ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 26/00 26/12 27/00 27/12 28/00 28/12 29/00 29/12
TW 14N 45W 47W 50W 53W 57W 60W 63W 65W 68W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 45W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. POTENTIAL IMPACT TO LAND
IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY...OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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