643
FXCA20 KWBC 261735
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
135 PM EDT THU OCT 26 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 25 OCT 2023 AT 1830 UTC: IN MEXICO...THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE OTIS ARE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND IS
LEAVING RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE REGION. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EAST...FAVORING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. WITH STRONGER TRADE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO MEXICO...THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THURSDAY...SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS/NORTHERN VERACRUZ IS FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...OAXACA...AND WESTERN CHIAPAS ARE FORECAST
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND EASTERN EJE
VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL...EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
FRIDAY...NORTHERN COAHUILA AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EJE
VOLVANICO TRANSVERSAL CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE
EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WHILE
MAXIMA AROUND THE COUNTRY REMAIN BELOW 25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO IS FORECAST
OVER THE REGION AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE ARRIVAL OF A KELVIN
WAVE BY FRIDAY...AND REMAIN PRESENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION IN AREAS WITH
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. ALOFT...THE PERIPHERY OF A POTENT RIDGE TO
THE NORTH EXTENDS INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND IS FAVORING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO PASS OVER GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS.
TO THE EAST...A TROUGH IS DEEPENING AND TILTING POSITIVELY...WITH
ITS BASE OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ONE ARE LOCATED
OFFSHORE WEST OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA...FAVORING ONSHORE FLOW AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PANAMANIAN LOW IS ORGANIZING NORTHWEST OF
COLOMBIA AND FAVORING EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW FROM NICARAGUA INTO
PANAMA. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE UPPER DIVERGENCE
OF THE MJO AND KELVIN WAVES...FAVORING HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THROUGHOUT THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON
THURSDAY...FROM GUANACASTE-COSTA RICA...THROUGH THE AZUERO
PENINSULA IN PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED. EL SALVADOR AND PORTION OF THE NICARAGUAN
PORTION AROUND EL GOLFO DE FONSECA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BELIZE AND CENTRAL
GUATEMALA. ALONG THE ATLANTIC BASINS FROM HONDURAS...TO
PANAMA...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA. ON FRIDAY...DARIEN-PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-150MM
WITH THE INCREASE IN ONSHORE FLOW. ELSEWHERE IN PANAMA...AND INTO
COSTA RICA...MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ARE EXPECTED.
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND NICARAGUA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. HONDURAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LEFT FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ONE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN
EL SALVADOR AND INTO NORTHWEST NICARAGUA ON SATURDAY. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN DARIEN-PANAMA. FROM THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF NICARAGUA TO THE OSA PENINSULA IN COSTA RICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. THE AZUERO PENINSULA IN PANAMA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN BELIZE AND CENTRAL
GUATEMALA...WHILE SOUTHERN GUATEMALA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE INDUCED TROUGH FROM TAMMY REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IN THE REGION. ALOFT...A POTENT TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN
IS POSITIONED WHERE THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO/VI...AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. WITH ASSISTANCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED PROPAGATION OF
THE KELVIN WAVE AND DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO...DEEP CONVECTION
AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THOSE FORECAST ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES
BY SATURDAY...AMPLIFYING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE
ISLANDS AND FAVORING HEAVY PRECIPITATION. ON THURSDAY...EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PUERTO RICO/VI...ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. THE LESSER ANTILLES CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
JAMAICA...HAITI...WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND GRENADA ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...FROM EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...TO DOMINICA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
FROM MARTINIQUE...TO TOBAGO...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
SATURDAY...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE WESTERN PUERTO RICO...EAST
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW
25MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE PANAMANIAN LOW IS BEING ENHANCED
BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE KELVIN WAVE AND
DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO. COLOMBIA IS FORECAST TO SEE INCREASED
PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF THE COUNTRY...AS WELL
AS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN BASIN. ONSHORE FLOW OVER THESE REGIONS
WILL FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATIONS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THURSDAY...WESTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 50-100MM WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA CAN ALSO EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION IN VENEZUELA IS FORECAST MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM. IN SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ARE EXPECTED
DUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WINDS. ON FRIDAY...NORTHERN
CHOCO-COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-150MM...WHILE OTHER REGIONS
IN WESTERN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. NORTHEAST
COLOMBIA...INTO THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. OTHER REGIONS OF COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND ECUADOR CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. DRIER AIR IN THE TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GUIANAS AND LITTLE OT NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...THE NORTHERN CHOCO REGION IN COLOMBIA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
ATLANTICO...BOLIVAR...AND SUCRE IN COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. OTHER REGIONS OF COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA CAN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. PORTIONS OF ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 27/00 27/12 28/00 28/12 29/00 29/12 30/00 30/12
TW 16N 49W 51W 53W 55W 58W 60W 62W 64W 66W
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 49W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. POTENTIAL IMPACT TO LAND
IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY...OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND
MARTINIQUE...ST.LUCIA...AND BARBADOS. MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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