220
FXCA20 KWBC 271707
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
107 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 27 OCT 2023 AT 1830 UTC: A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. ON FRIDAY...THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
SEE MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTHERN COAHUILA...AND ALONG THE EL
VOLCANICO TRANSVERSAL. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 25MM. STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE MOVING DRIER AIR INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF MEXICO IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND DRYING OUT
THE COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
OAXACA AND CHIAPAS COULD SEE EFFECTS OF ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EP92 OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. ON SATURDAY...FROM DURANGO...SOUTH
SINALOA AND NAYARIT...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ...OAXACA...AND GUERRERO COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ON SUNDAY...NORTHERN COAHUILA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ELSEWHERE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED BELOW 25MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS WATCHING
EP92...LOCATED OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA. THE LOW
SYSTEM IS SEEING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THE DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO AND AN
ACCOMPANYING KELVIN WAVE...ARE LOCATED OVER THE REGION. THE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED OVER WARM OCEAN WATERS...CURRENTLY SEEING POSITIVELY
ANOMALOUS SST. LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WINDS
CONVERGING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL FAVOR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN
PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND NICARAGUA.
SIMILARLY...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ARE SEEING THE EFFECTS OF
ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE NORTH OF COLOMBIA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ON
FRIDAY...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR..NICARAGUA...AND
NORTHERN COSTA RICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...EL
SALVADOR/NORTHWEST NICARAGUA COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OD 30-60MM.
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA COULD EXPECT
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA MAXIMA MAY STAY
BELOW 25MM. ON SUNDAY...EASTERN EL SALVADOR/NORTHWEST NICARAGUA
COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. THE PACIFIC COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA ARE
FORECAST MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. PORTIONS OF
GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...NICARAGUA..COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA ARE
FORECAST GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. EASTERN NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS SEEING A RAIN EVENT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/TUTT...AND THE INTERACTIONS WITH AN INDUCED TROUGH AND A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE TROUGH
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OF OVER
55MM. IN ADDITION...THE AFOREMENTIONED DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO
AND KELVIN WAVE WILL ENHANCE THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER
HISPANIOLA..PUERTO RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. ON FRIDAY...FROM
EASTERN PUERTO RICO THROUGH DOMINICA...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
FROM EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COULD EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...EASTERN PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS COULD
SEE MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WESTERN PUERTO
RICO...AND FROM ANGUILLA AND TO BARBADOS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-45MM. ELSEWHERE EXPECT MAXIMA TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM. ON
SUNDAY...JAMAICA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. FROM PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...TO ST. KITTS AND NEVIS...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 20-35MM...WITH A LOW RISK
OF SQUALLY WEATHER. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS...AND EASTERN
CUBA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...ONSHORE FLOW FROM A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS FAVORING MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE REGION AND MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED. THE DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO AND THE KELVIN WAVE
WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION...WHILE INTERACTIONS WITH THE ITCZ AND
TROUGHS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION. NORTH AND
WESTERN COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
THE REGION. ON FRIDAY...NORTHERN CHOCO-COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 75-150MM. WESTERN COLOMBIA IS EXPECTED TO SEE MAXIMA OF
40-80MM. EXTREME NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION
COULD SEE MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. CENTRAL VENEZUELA...ECUADOR...AND
CENTRAL COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE MAXIMA
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25MM. NORTHERN ON
SATURDAY...CHOCO-COLOMBIA CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. WHILE THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ATLANTICO...BOLIVAR...AND SUCRE IN COLOMBIA
CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. OTHER REGIONS OF
COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND ECUADOR CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
ON SUNDAY...NORTHERN COLOMBIA...AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA CAN EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. WESTERN COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA...ARE FORECAST MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. EXTREME SOUTH COLOMBIA
AND NORTHERN PERU CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 28/00 28/12 29/00 29/12 30/00 30/12 31/00 31/12
TW 16N 53W 55W 58W 61W 64W 66W ABSORBED
A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 53W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 19N. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OPEN WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. POTENTIAL IMPACT TO LAND
IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY...OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND
MARTINIQUE...ST.LUCIA...AND BARBADOS. MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ON SUNDAY...THE WAVE
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND
PUERTO RICO/VI.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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