128
FXUS01 KWBC 271928
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
326 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2023
VALID 00Z SAT OCT 28 2023 - 00Z MON OCT 30 2023
...HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE THIS WEEKEND...
...BITTER EARLY SEASON COLD SNAP EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT
PLAINS AND ROCKIES, WHILE RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH IS FOUND ACROSS
THE EAST AND GULF COAST...
...VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE NATION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE A STRONG AUTUMN FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEPARATING RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND EAST FROM
EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT WILL BE SETTLING SOUTH AND
EAST WITH TIME AND WILL DRIVE AN ELONGATED AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GRADUALLY THESE HEAVY RAINS
WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONT. LOCALLY A FEW INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT, AND GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN, SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS THE FRONT BANKS UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES AND THE FRONT RANGE, AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
SATURDAY, AND THEN EJECTING EAST OUT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER AMOUNTS SPREADING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AND THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO, WHERE AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. LESSER AMOUNTS TO AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH
NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS. THIS WILL
INCLUDE THE DENVER METROPOLITAN AREA. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
SNOWFALL, WHILE ALSO LEADING TO SINGLE DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES
ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA, WYOMING, AND NORTH DAKOTA. A FEW DAILY
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SATURDAY
MORNING AND THIS WILL GIVE THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AN EARLY DOSE
OF MID-WINTER WEATHER.
THIS SAME AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE GREAT BASIN AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ARRIVE AS A RESULT, BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD, MUCH
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL SET UP A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY, AND WILL RESULT IN A DEVELOPING CRITICAL
THREAT OF WILDFIRE ACTIVITY FOR THE TRANSVERSE RANGES AND THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN.
ELSEWHERE, AND OPPOSITE OF THE BITTER COLD IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S., SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THIS WEEKEND. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CREATE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES
10 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE LATE-OCTOBER AVERAGES. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND
COULD BREAK NUMEROUS DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. A QUICK
REPRIEVE BACK TO COLDER WEATHER THOUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A
LIKELIHOOD FOR SCATTERED AREAS OF SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THIS REGION. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS HERE STAYING IN THE 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SNELL/ORRISON
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