180
FXUS01 KWBC 281938
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 PM EDT SAT OCT 28 2023
VALID 00Z SUN OCT 29 2023 - 00Z TUE OCT 31 2023
..HEAVY SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY, MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS;
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FROM
MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST...
...VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS CALIFORNIA ON
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF WILDFIRE ACTIVITY...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY. THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH WILL BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. IN
CONTRAST, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST.
IN ADDITION, THE WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PRODUCE A REGION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER AREA IS DUE TO
GUSTY WIND, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS OVER THE AREA.
FURTHER, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC ROUGHLY
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN ROUGHLY
NORTHWESTWARD TO THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST AND
WESTERN GULF COAST WHILE LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND DISSIPATE BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THE LOW
WILL AID IN PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND CENTRAL PLAINS FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY THAT WILL
TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS BY MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL OVERRUN AND POOL
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY, MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY,
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND
SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
THE AREA OF SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE OVER A
SLIGHTLY SMALLER AREA OVER PARTS OF OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY,
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON MONDAY, A FRONT DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
MONDAY EVENING, CREATING LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FURTHERMORE, AS THE COLD AIR
MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY, THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BECOMES HEAVIER OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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