232
FXUS01 KWBC 291947
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EDT SUN OCT 29 2023
VALID 00Z MON OCT 30 2023 - 00Z WED NOV 01 2023
...HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FOR THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
AND MODERATE SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SANTA ANA WIND AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASED THREAT OF WILDFIRE ACTIVITY...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND HIGH MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE 15 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
IN ADDITION, THE SANTA ANA WIND ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A REGION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER PARTS
OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. THE FIRE
WEATHER AREA IS DUE TO MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH, WHICH HAS
PROMPTED HIGH WIND WARNINGS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS
OVER THE AREA.
MOREOVER, THE HIGH WILL CREATE UPSLOPE WIND AND LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AS THE COLD
AIR SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AN AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
FURTHER, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC ROUGHLY
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST
AND WESTERN GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE LINGERING
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
FURTHERMORE, MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL OVERRUN AND
POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, RAIN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, WITH
THE COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES, HEAVY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.
ALSO, ON MONDAY, A FRONT OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY
EVENING, THEN TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/TENNESSEE VALLEY BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM CREATES LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES BY TUESDAY. FURTHERMORE, THE STORM WILL PRODUCE
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IN ADDITION, ON MONDAY, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, CREATING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER
NORTHERN MAINE INTO TUESDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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