915
FXCA20 KWBC 301250
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
849 AM EDT MON OCT 30 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI OCT 30/12UTC:
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BAHAMAS...AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...IS CAUSING DEEP
MOISTURE TO PREVAIL NEAR PR/USVI TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE USVI
INTO EASTERN PR TODAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE INTO MIDWEEK AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES WEST SLOWLY. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER...THE VALUES WILL DECREASE FROM AROUND 2.5 INCHES THIS
MORNING...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN
NORMAL...TO AROUND 2.1 INCHES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN
CONTINUE DECREASING TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES BY THURSDAY. EASTERN PR
WILL CONTINUE HAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY THIS WEEK...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLY NEAR 1.25 TO 1.5
INCHES...EXCEPT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN 0.5 INCHES OR LESS ARE
FORECAST. ACCORDING TO THE EGDI ALGORITHM...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TUESDAY...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND SHALLOW CONVECTION
WOULD BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF HISPANIOLA
WILL CAUSE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK...BUT A TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC WITH THE BASE OVER PR/USVI WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE UPPER LEVELS...AND CAUSE STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE AREA. A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL VORTICITY OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE LOCAL WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL TOTAL OVER EASTERN PR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR
5.5 TO 6 INCHES...WITH VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE USVI RECEIVING
NEAR 2-4 INCHES. THAT SAID...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE
FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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