562
FXCA20 KWBC 311233
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
833 AM EDT TUE OCT 31 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI OCT 31/12UTC:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE CENTERS OVER HAITI/THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. THIS IS VENTILATING CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
MOIST PLUME AND INDUCED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALONG 67W ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FLARING
UP WELL TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...RESULTING IN GENERALIZED
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE VI...BUT OTHERWISE...A DRYING TREND IS ON THE WAY.
UPPER AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC SYSTEMS ARE MOVING VERY
SLOWLY...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SLOWER TRANSITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THROUGH
FRIDAY/SATURDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME...A TUTT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE EAST INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY...BUT
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY LIMIT ITS WESTWARD
PROGRESSION. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS. WITHIN THIS
GENERALLY DECREASING TREND...A MOIST PLUME IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE ISLANDS ON LATE ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
FAVOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND THE WESTERN VI...FAVORING
24-HR ACCUMULATION APPROACHING 0.5 INCHES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
AMOUNTS IN THE ORDER OF 0.2-0.6 INCHES ON SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO ON
TUESDAY...DECREASING TO AMOUNTS UNDER 0.2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. AS
THE MOIST PLUME MOVES IN...EXPECT MAXIMA INCREASING TO NEAR 0.5
INCHES IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY...AND MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.4
INCHES IN FAR NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO AS WELL.
ON FRIDAY...THE STRENGTHENING OF THE TRADE WIND CAP WILL START TO
LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.3 INCHES IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND MAXIMA
GENERALLY UNDER 0.2 INCHES IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. ON
SATURDAY...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VI...AND
AFTERNOON CONVECTION CLUSTERING IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO. EXPECT
MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 0.25 INCHES.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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