296
FXCA20 KWBC 311821
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
220 PM EDT TUE OCT 31 2023
AT 15 UTC...TROPICAL STORM PILAR CENTERED NEAR 11.2N 89.9W.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 HPA AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 45KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55KT. PILAR WAS MOVING TO
THE EAST OR AT 90 DEGREES AND AT 03KT. FOLLOW NHC GUIDANCE FOR
UPDATED ON TRACK AND INTENSITY.
FORECAST BULLETIN 31 OCT 2023 AT 1900 UTC: A SURFACE FRONT IS
PROPAGATING SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY
EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA INTO TABASCO...CHIVELA
PASS AND NORTHERN OASACA. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...NORTHWEST CUBA...NORTHEAST
YUCATAN PENINSULA...NORTHERN CHIAPAS...CHIVELA PASS. BY THURSDAY
EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...NORTHWEST CUBA
INTOA WEAKENING BOUNDARY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...CHIVELA PASS. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
SOUTHERN USA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS FAVORING STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A STRONG TEHUANTEPECER
LOW-LEVEL JET. THE TEHUANTEPECER IS FORECAST TO PEAK ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHEN EXPECT SPEEDS NEARING 75KT AT 925 HPA...BUT
REACHING 50-55KT AT 10 METERS. THE TEHUANTEPECER IS FORECAST TO
LINGER ON THURSDAY BUT TO START DECREASING IN INTENSITY. IN TERMS
OF PRECIPITATION...STRONG OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT IN SOUTHERN MEXICO
WILL FAVOR 25-50MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 75-150MM IN SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/TABASCO/NORTHERN CHIAPAS ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THIS
EPAKS AT 40-80MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 100-200MM. ALSO ON
TUESDAY...PREFRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE
OCNVERGENCE IN COASTAL BELIZE AND NORTHWEST HONDURAS...WHERE
EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
LINGERING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/NORTHERN CHIAPAS AND IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA. IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS...EXPECT A PEAK IN PRECIPITATION AS THE
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS PEAK...WHICH WILL FAVOR 25-50MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 100-200MM. IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HONDURAS
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
ALSO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOIST PLUME WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE
ONSHORE FLOW IN FAR EASTERN CUBA FAVORS MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON
THURSDAY...INTERACTION OF THE FRONT WITH THE MOIST PLUME IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH A PATTERN OF ENHANCED
VENTILATION BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND THE POLAR TROUGH TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL FAVOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...IN SQUALLY
CONVECTION.
TROPICAL STORM PILAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS IN CENTRAL
AMERICA THROUGH THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH PILAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WELL OFF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA...ONSHORE FLOW IS
ENHANCING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO
CONTINENTAL REGIONS OF WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA. OF MOST CONCERN IS
THE GULF OF FONSECA REGION AND NORTHWEST NICARAGUA...WHERE EXPECT
THE LARGEST STORM TOTALS...FORECAST TO EXCEED 200MM LOCALLY IN TWO
DAYS. ON TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
100-200MM IN SOUTHEAST EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND
NORTHWEST NICARAGUA. IN GUANACASTE AND SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL
NICARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM FROM EASTERN EL SALVADOR INTO NORTHERN
NICARAGUA...WHILE IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA/GUANACASTE...ITCZ
CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. THE EFFECTS OF PILAR
ARE FORECAST TO WANE THEREAFTER. STILL...ITCZ CONVERGENCE AND
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN COSTA RICA AND
WEST PANAMA ON THURSDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FORMATION OF A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE (CAG)
IS OF INTEREST TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND LATER TO
CENTRAL AMERICA. ON TUESDAY...OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A MOIST PLUME. BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND ACROSS WEST VENEZUELA...ARUBA/CURACAO AND INTO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OR NEAR 69W-70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG
RIDGE CENTERING NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL FAVOR ENHANCED
VENTILATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ABC ISLANDS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO STIMULATE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THIS
TROUGH...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A BROADENING AND
INTENSIFICATION OF ROTATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE DEEPENING TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MEANDER WESTWARD TO EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA INTO THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BY THURSDAY EVENING...EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD
REGION OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...SPANNING FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST VENEZUELA INTO HAITI/SOUTHEAST CUBA AND SAN
ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ON FRIDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH IT WILL FAVOR AREAS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN NOVEMBER 4 AND 7...CONFIDENCE IN THEIR
DISTRIBUTION IS STILL QUITE LOW. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE SYSTEM
WILL FAVOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN CARIBBEAN
NATIONS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN CENTRAL HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHEAST CUBA...WHILE IN THE
REST OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN JAMAICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
IT WILL ALSO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE ABC ISLANDS AND
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN THE ABC ISLANDS/NW VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA
WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. IN HISPANIOLA AND FAR EASTERN CUBA
EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. IN JAMAICA AND IN
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN MOST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND THE LAKE
MARACAIBO REGION...AS WELL AS IN EASTERN JAMAICA. IN THE NORTHWEST
CHOCO/DARIEN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. ITCZ CONVERGENCE IN PANAMA
AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST JAMAICA.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12
NONE
ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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