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FXCA20 KWBC 011225
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
825 AM EDT WED NOV 01 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI NOV 01/12UTC:
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE CENTERS JUST TO THE WEST OF HAITI
WHILE A TUTT LOW CENTERS JUST TO THE EAST OF MARTINIQUE. THE TUTT
IS PRODUCING SOME DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE ISLANDS. YET...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
LIES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
LITTLE CLOUDINESS OVER AND EAST OF PUERTO RICO. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A WEAK TRADE WIND CAP NEAR 900 HPA...WHICH IS ALLOWING
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING WITH THE DRY AIR ALOFT TO LIMIT CLOUD
COVER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 40MM AND DECREASING. UNDER
THIS PATTERN...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
LIMITED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY. UNDER A SOUTHEASTERLY
TRADE WIND REGIME...EXPECT LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PR...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO...THE LATTER TO PRODUCE MAXIMA IN THE 0.3-0.4 INCH RANGE.
A MOIST PLUME IS FORECAST TO CROSS ON THURSDAY...YET PRECIPITABLE
WATER IS FORECAST TO INCREASE JUST ABOVE 40MM. THIS WILL FAVOR A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF EARLY MORNING TRADE WIND
SHOWERS IN EASTERN PR AS WELL AS IN RAINFALL TOTALS ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 0.4-0.6
INCHES...WHILE AFTERNOON CONVECTION FAVORS MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.5
INCHES IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA. THE TUTT LOCATED TO
THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND APPROACH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BUT THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WILL
PUSH THE TUTT EAST AGAIN...LIMITING ITS DIRECT INFLUENCE OVER
PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONSERVATIVE ACCUMULATIONS ON
SATURDAY WHEN NORTHEASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED...FOCUSING LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VI AND EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO...AND
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST.
YET ON SATURDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASING TREND DUE TO THE APPROACH
OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT. THE
MOIST PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES.
NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER TO
NEAR 45MM...WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO FAVOR AN INCREASE IN THE
COVERAGE OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS AND ACCUMULATION. EXPECT MAXIMA
INCREASING TO 0.2-0.4 INCHES IN THE VI AND EASTERN PR...AND LOCAL
MAXIMA NEARING 0.7 INCHES IN ST. CROIX...WHILE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST PR CONTINUES TO FAVOR MAXIMA IN THE
0.3-0.4 INCH RANGE.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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