021
FXCA20 KWBC 011515
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1115 AM EDT WED NOV 01 2023
NOTE: SEVERAL HAZARDS ARE PRESENT THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ARE EXPECTED WITH FAST
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN
HONDURAS/EASTERN GUATEMALA...WHERE EXPECT PERIODS WITH RAINFALL
RATES NEARING 200MM/DAY. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS.
AT 15 UTC...TROPICAL STORM PILAR CENTERED NEAR 12.5N 90.5W.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 996 HPA AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 50KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60KT. PILAR WAS MOVING TO
THE WEST OR AT 270 DEGREES AND AT 06KT. FOLLOW NHC GUIDANCE FOR
UPDATED ON TRACK AND INTENSITY.
FORECAST BULLETIN 01 NOV 2023 AT 1515 UTC: UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A POTENT POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...A ROBUST
SURFACE FRONT IS RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WESTERN POLAR AIR MASS IS
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP AND HAS REACHED EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL IN MEXICO. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR NW BAHAMAS...FLORIDA KEYS...NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...CAMPECHE...CENTRAL MEXICO...SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL. BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...NORTH CUBA...NORTHEAST YUCATAN
PENINSULA...INTO A WEAKENING BOUNDARY ACROSS TABASCO AND THE
CHIVELA PASS. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS INTO NORTH CUBA. OF SIGNIFICANCE...A STRONG
AND LONG TEHUANTEPECER LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE JET ASSOCIATES WITH SPEEDS OF 55 TO 75KT AT 925HPA DURING
WEDNESDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 50-65KT BY THURSDAY
PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT GUSTS NEARING 55KT
SOUTH OF THE CHIVELA PASS ON WEDNESDAY DECREASING AFTER. THIS
SYSTEM IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH LONG FETCH NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...CU8BA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS
WILL FAVOR SQUALLY CONDITIONS IN THE BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT ALSO FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTHERN
HONDURAS/EASTERN GUATEMALA AND COASTAL BELIZE DUE TO ENHANCED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS...EXPECT EXTREME RAINFALL IN
CHIAPAS/TABASCO/SOUTHERN VERACRUZ ON WEDNESDAY WHERE AMOUNTS OF
40-80MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 100-200MM IS FORECAST. IN NORTHWEST
HONDURAS...ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL FAVOR 20-40MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM. ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS...EXPECT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST HONDURAS/EASTERN GUATEMALA AND
ISLAS DE LA BAHIA...WHERE EXPECT 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
100-200MM. ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN HONDURAS AND IN NORTHERN SLOPES
OF CENTRAL GUATEMALA...AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE CHIVELA
PASS...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ALSO ON
THURSDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL INTERACT
WITH AN APPROACHING MOIST PLUME AND ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND POLAR TROUGH TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. GIVEN
STRONG 30KT+ NORTHEASTERLY TRADES...EXPECT SQUALLY CONDITIONS.
ONSHORE FLOW IN ATLANTIC PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL IN
NORTHERN HONDURAS/ISLAS DE LA BAHIA WHERE EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL
20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 100-150MM. ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND
WESTERN HONDURAS EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. IN THE
BAHAMAS...AS THE FRONT RETREAT...EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHERE EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA INITIALLY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW DUE TO
THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM PILAR AND LATER BY
THE INFLUENCE OF A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE FORECAST TO STIMULATE
PRECIPITATION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO CLUSTER FROM
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA INTO FAR WESTERN PANAMA...WHERE
EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH A RISK FOR MCS
FORMATION. IN EL SALVADOR AND THE REST OF HOCARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM...WHILE OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND IN PANAMA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND WEST PANAMA WHERE EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. FROM EASTERN EL
SALVADOR/NORTHWEST NICARAGUA INTO THE REST OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON FRIDAY...EXPECTTHE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND MOST OF WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PANAMA...WHERE EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM.
ONSHORE FLOW IN NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND EAST HONDURAS WILL FAVOR
SIMILAR AMOUNTS...WHILE IN SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA
RICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
A ROBUST UPPER RIDGE LIES WEST OF HAITI ON WEDNESDAY...AND IS
VENTILATING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST MOIST PLUME
AND A STRONG TROUGH...PRECURSOR OF THE EXPECTED CENTRAL AMERICAN
GYRE. NOTE THAT SST NEAR JAMAICA AND HAITI IS APPROACHING
31C...WHICH WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ACROSS WEST HAITI///SOUTHEAST CUBA AND
JAMAICA. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NW
VENEZUELA AND IN THE ABC ISLANDS ALSO STIMULATED BY THE ITCZ. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN EASTERN JAMAICA AND IN
ARUBA/BONAIRE/GOLFO DE VENEZUELA REGION. IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA/LAKE
MARACAIBO REGION EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-125MM WITH AN ENHANCED RISK
FOR MCS FORMATION. ONSHORE FLOW IN WESTERN COLOMBIA AND THE EJE
CAFETERO WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. ON FRIDAY EXPECT THE FOCUS
OF HEAVY CONVECTION TO SHIFT INTO CENTRAL AMERICA.
ALSO OF INTEREST...A TUTT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY
STIMULATE CONVECTION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH AMERICA...ALSO AIDED BY INDUCED TROUGHS. THIS
WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE TO MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA BY THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/NORTH
GUYANA...WHERE EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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