593
FXCA20 KWBC 021501
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1101 AM EDT THU NOV 02 2023
AT 15 UTC...TROPICAL STORM PILAR CENTERED NEAR 11.1N 91.2W.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1000 HPA AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 45KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 55KT. PILAR WAS MOVING TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR AT 75 DEGREES AND AT 05KT. FOLLOW NHC
GUIDANCE FOR UPDATED ON TRACK AND INTENSITY.
FORECAST BULLETIN 30 OCT 2023 AT 1900 UTC: A SURFACE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND OVER VERACRUZ ON MONDAY. AS A POTENT HIGH LEVEL
PRESSURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS USA WHILE SUERFACE PRESSURES REMAIN LOW IN THE
EPAC...EXPECT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RESULT IN A RAPID
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD...AND ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TEHUANTEPECER LOW-LEVEL JET. ON
MONDAY...EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF INTO
CENTRAL VERACRUZ. BY TUESDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA...JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF MERIDA IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/TABASCO. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT
THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...NORTHERN CUBA...THE CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE CHIVELA PASS. THE TEHUANTEPECER LLJ IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING...AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
NOTE THAT IT IS FORECAST TO REACH SPEEDS OVER 70KT AT 925 HPA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO
REACH SPEEDS OF 50-55KT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE NORTES
EVENT DEVELOPS...EXPECT ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW TO FAVOR HEAVY
RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ON MONDAY EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM IN NORTHERN VERACRUS WHILE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON TUESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF
75-150MM DEVELOPING IN TABASCO AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/NORTHERN
CHIAPAS. THE EVENT IS FORECAST TO PEAK DURING WEDNESDAY...WHEN
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 100-200MM IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...N CHIAPAS AND
TABASCO. IN THE MEANTIME...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE MORE
CONSERVATIVE ACCUMULATIONS AS IT PROGRESES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND
NORTHERN CUBA...WHERE EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON
WEDNESDAY. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH STRUCTURE WILL...HOWEVER...BE THE
FOCUS FOR ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ONW EDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS IN SOUTHEAST CUBA.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH TROPICAL STORM PILAR AS WELL AS ITCZ MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
THE NHC FORECASTS PILAR APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TO THEN RETREAT SOUTHWESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE CONTINENT. AS PILAR APPROACHES...A FEEDER BAND-LIKE
STRUCTURE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ TO FAVOR HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM NORTHWEST COSTA RICA INTO WESTERN NICARAGUA AND THE
GULF OF FONSECA REGION. ON MONDAY...EXPECT 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 75-125MM FROM NW NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF FONSECA REGION.
ELSEWHERE FROM NW COSTA RICA INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND CENTRAL EL
SALVADOR EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ALSO ON
MONDAY...ACTIVE ITCZ CONVECTION WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
CENTRAL PANAMA WHILE IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA/WEST PANAMA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL TO CLUSTER
FROM CENTRAL WESTERN NICARAGUA INTO THE GULF OF FONSECA REGION AND
SOUTHERN EL SALVADOR...WHERE EXPECT 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA FO
75-150MM. IN NW COSTA RICA AND CENTRAL AND SW NICARAGUA EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM IN SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA
RICA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH ITCZ MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. FROM NW
NICARAGUA INTO CENTRAL EL SALVADOR EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM. IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND MOST OF PANAMA EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ
AND DIURNAL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
ALSO OF INTEREST...A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A MOIST PLUME. AS THE TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN PUERTO RICO ON
MONDAY...WHEN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN HISPANIOLA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON TUESDAY...THE TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-45MM IN PUERTO RICO AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...WHILE IN THE LAKE
MARACAIBO REGION IT FAVORS MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. NOTE
THAT THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A CENTRAL AMERICAN
GYRE (CAG) ON THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY FAVOR AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
EVOLUTION IS STILL LOW...BUT THE INTERNATIONAL DESKS WILL BE
MONITORING IT CLOSELY TO PROVIDE RAINFALL GUIDANCE WHEN
APPROPRIATE.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 28/00 28/12 29/00 29/12 30/00 30/12 31/00 31/12
ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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