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FXCA20 KWBC 031235
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
834 AM EDT FRI NOV 03 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI NOV 03/12UTC:
THE PREVAILING RAINFALL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS FORECAST TO
BE FAIRLY TYPICAL...WITH EASTERLY WINDS CAUSING AN ADVECTIVE
RAINFALL PATTERN AFFECTING EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...THEN SOME
LOCALLY INDUCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PR. THE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN PR ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AT
AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR LESS WHILE EASTERN PR AND THE USVI WOULD HAVE
UNDER AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS POSSIBLY IN AND
AROUND THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE AND A FEW MILES DOWNWIND. A SFC
TROUGH COULD CHANGE THE LOCAL PATTERN FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE USVI. THE WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHTER
AND SHIFT TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. IN ADDITION...GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FEW LOCALIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT COULD CAUSE
CONVERGENCE AT THE SFC AROUND THE USVI.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...WEST OF JAMAICA...AND IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH COULD MOVE IN
OVER PR/USVI BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A TUTT LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARDS AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL LEEWARDS PUTS PR/USVI IN THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AND THEREFORE THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS REDUCED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IT IS NOT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK WHEN
THE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS PR/USVI...THOUGH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETTER
ACROSS THE USVI AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. A MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW
WILL APPROACH THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY...CAUSING
INSTABILITY TO INCREASE...THEN A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP THE LOCAL WINDS MOSTLY FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT IT WILL MOVE EAST AS A SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS SFC LOW WILL HAVE AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH
THAT COULD EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND COINCIDE
WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK...AND
THEREFORE ENHANCE INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE
USVI...IF IT STAYS EAST OF MAINLAND PR AS THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING. THAT BEING SAID...THE EGDI ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING THE
BEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WOULD BE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
EAST OF THE USVI...THOUGH CONSIDERING NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IT COULD
BE SAID THAT IT IS TOO CLOSE TO RULE OUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE USVI EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT WESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
PR COULD HAVE NEAR 3 TO 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN...WHILE THE USVI COULD
HAVE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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