097
FXCA20 KWBC 031558
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1157 AM EDT FRI NOV 03 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 03 NOV 2023 AT 1500 UTC: A SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS
A CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE (CAG) THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
CENTRAL-WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ENTERING CENTRAL AMERICA RAPIDLY.
MODELS CONTINUE STRUGGLING FORECASTING ITS PRECISE STRUCTURE AND
EVOLUTION...BUT THERE IS SOME CONVERGENCE ON MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT
INDICATES THAT THE GYRE MIGHT HIGHLIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY NOVEMBER 6TH...TO THEN DECREASE ITS IMPACTS ON THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN CONTINENT. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE LARGEST RAINFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY IN NORTHERN HONDURAS AND GULF
OF HONDURAS REGION...WHERE DEEP CONVECTION IS ALREADY PRESENT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A RETREATING SHEAR LINE AND ENHANCED VENTILATION
CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE. OTHER AREAS
OF INTEREST ARE COSTA RICA...SOUTHERN AND WEST PANAMA...AND
WESTERN NICARAGUA WHERE EXPECT PERIOD WITH MODERATE PRECIPITATION.
IN TERMS OF EXPECTED RAINFALL WITH THE CAG...EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM IN MOST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS AND ISLAS DE
LA BAHIA ON FRIDAY. IN CENTRAL HONDURAS AND NORTHEAST NICARAGUA
EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA
AND SOUTHERN PANAMA EXPECT ALSO 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM
WHILE IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN COSTA RICA AND MOST
OF WEST AND CENTRAL PANAMA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND AMXIMA OF
20-45MM. IN BELIZE AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ON SATURDAY EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM IN NORTHWEST
HONDURAS...SOUTHERN BELIZE AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA. IN NORTHEAST
HONDURAS AND NORTHEAST NICARAGUA EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA...MOST OF COSTA RICA AND SOUTHWEST
PANAMA EXPECT ALSO 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. ELSEWHERE IN
NICARAGUA AND IN PANAMA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN NORTHWEST
HONDURAS WHERE AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 20-40MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. IN NORTHEAST HONDURAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF
35-70MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN BELIZE...CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND EASTERN CHIAPAS. FROM CENTRAL COSTA RICA
INTO THE GULF OF FONSECA REGION EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM INCLUIDING WESTERN NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE IN
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
NORTH IN THE DOMAIN...A SURFACE FRONT IS RETREATING NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND WEST CUBA ON FRIDAY. AS IT
INTERACTS WITH ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE BASE OF THE POLAR
TROUGH TO THE NORTH...EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WHERE EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. ALSO
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN OUTER
ISLANDS. IN NORTH CUBA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED AS A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND JUST NORTH OF WEST
CUBA. THIS WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM
IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND WEST CUBA. IN THE TAIL OF THE
FRONT...MOIST INSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ON
SUNDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE EAST COAST OF THE
USA. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE POLAR RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST USA
AND PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD AGAIN. BY SUNDAY EVENING
EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS ELEUTHERA...NEW PROVIDENCE AND NORTHERN
ANDROS ISLAND. THIS WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND SCATTERED MAXIMA OF
15MM IN THE BAHAMAS...AND LIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHERN CUBA.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS HIGHLIGHTING
UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS IS INTERACTING
WITH A MOIST PLUME ASSOTIATED WITH THE CURRENTLY ILL-DEFINED ITCZ
AND FACORING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. ON FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...THIS WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WHILE IN NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN GUYANA
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM FROM TOBAGO AND GRENADA NORTH INTO GUADELOUPE.
ON SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS...THE UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SOUTHEASTWARD BECOMING OUT OF PHASE
WITH THE MOIST PLUME IN THE REGION. STILL...UPPER FORDING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO FAVOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES WHERE EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM...EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST VENEZUELA AND THE AMC ISLANDS.
IN NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA...ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR SEVERAL
PERIODS WITH MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN WESTERN COLOMBIA. ON FRIDAY
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA. THIS INCREASES TO
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY THIS SPREADS INTO THE EJE
CAFETERO WHERE EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM AS WELL.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12 06/00 06/12 07/00 07/12
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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