907
FXCA20 KWBC 061232
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
731 AM EST MON NOV 06 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI NOV 06/12UTC:
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND EARLY
TOMORROW...HAVING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.25 INCHES FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. SOME RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST EACH
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH EASTERN PR AS WELL AS PORTIONS
OF WEST TO NORTHWEST PR RECEIVING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OVER THE 5-DAY PERIOD. THE USVI ALSO COULD OBSERVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY EACH DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
PARTICULAR DISAGREEMENT FOR THE AMOUNT OF RAIN EXPECTED DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WITH THE GFS MODEL BEING MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAN THE ECMWF. THAT BEING
SAID...THERE SEEMS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE CHANCES OF
SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACROSS SOME AREAS...AND GOOD THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH THE EGDI
ALGORITHM INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA...THOUGH MOSTLY FOR AREAS NEAR THE USVI AND EASTERN PR.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR HONDURAS...BUT EXTENDING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH COULD MOVE IN OVER
HISPANIOLA BY WEDNESDAY. A TUTT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA ON THURSDAY...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE BAHAMAS...WITH A MID LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR 29N/63W BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CAUSE A
BROAD TROUGH TO REACH THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN BUT ITS INFLUENCE
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS COULD BE WEAK AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH AND
A WEAK MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REACHES THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...BUT A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL CAUSE THE
LOCAL WINDS TO BE MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY IN THE WORKWEEK. THE
LOCAL WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER AND EASTERLY BY THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN PR COULD HAVE
NEAR 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN...WHILE WESTERN PR IS CLOSER TO 4.5
INCHES. THE USVI COULD HAVE BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES DURING THE
5-DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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