840
FXCA20 KWBC 061852
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
152 PM EST MON NOV 06 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 06 NOV 2023 AT 1500 UTC: A POLAR TROUGH
PROPAGATING RAPIDLY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS IS
INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT IS REORGANIZING...AND
AS THE UPPER TROUGH FAVORS AN INCREASE IN SURFACE PRESSURES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST USA...EXPECT THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARDS
AGAIN ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING EXPECT THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...SOUTHEAST CUBA...NORTHWEST JAMAICA INTO
CENTRAL BELIZE. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED JUST
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO INTO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING EXPECT A STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO ACROSS SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA...NORTH OF JAMAICA INTO NORTHEAST
HONDURAS. A TRANSIENT PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS ALSO FORECAST TO
FORM ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VI
AND PUERTO RICO INTO PROVIDENCIA AND THE COSTA RICA-NICARAGUA
BORDER...TO THEN WEAKEN. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS...WHERE MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ON MONDAY
EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN NORTHWEST
HONDURAS...EAST GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEAST BELIZE...INCLUDING ISLAS
DE LA BAHIA. ELSEWHERE IN BELIZE AND NORTH-CENTRAL
GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON TUESDAY EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA/EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN BELIZE/NORTHWEST HONDURAS...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN
HONDURAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN SAN ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA AND EAST
NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST COSTA RICA. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT A GENERALIZED
DECREASE IN MAXIMA IN CENTRAL AMERICA TO 15-20MM ACROSS MOST OF
HONDURAS INTO GUATEMALA. IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FRONT...LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT MAXIMA TO GENERALLY
10MM/DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEAST CUBA/JAMAICA
ON MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
EASTERN HISPANIOLA WHILE IN JAMAICA EXPECT STILL MAXIMA OF 10MM. A
MOIST PLUME INTERACTING WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH STRUCTURE OVER
AND EAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-30MM IN PUERTO RICO...VI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO AS THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY. IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-20MM...WHILE ONSHORE FLOW IN NORTHERN HAITI...SOUTHEAST CUBA
AND JAMAICA FAVORS ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM.
ALSO IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE EFFECTS OF A WANING CENTRAL AMERICAN
GYRE WILL STILL FAVOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...WHERE
WEAK DIURNAL BREEZES FROM THE PACIFIC WILL STIMULATE AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT FROM WESTERN PANAMA INTO EASTERN EL SALVADOR/SOUTHERN
HONDURAS...WHERE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THEREAFTER.
ALSO NORTH IN THE DOMAIN...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...TO EXTEND ACROSS WYOMING-UTAH
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL STIMULATE THE SUBTROPICAL JET
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO...WHICH WILL IN
TERM STIMULATE ASCENT ALONG A LOFTED MOIST PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHERN SINALOA INTO NORTHERN COAHUILA/SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA. ON
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA UNDER 15MM
IN PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND MAXIMA UNDER 10MM
DOWNSTREAM.
IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...A MOIST PLUME ENTERING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC ITCZ WILL FAVOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY...WHEN
EXPECT AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON
TUESDAY...A PEAK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. A RETURN OF DRIER EASTERLY FLOW
WILL FAVOR A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATING CONVECTION
ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN ACTIVITY WILL CLUSTER ALONG THE ITCZ IN
TRINIDAD AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER NORTHEAST SOUTH AMERICA AND IS
FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A MOIST PLUME IN CENTRAL/WESTERN
VENEZUELA AND NORTHEAST COLOMBIA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO
CENTRAL VENEZUELA...WHILE IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA REGION AND THE
ABC ISLANDS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ALSO ON MONDAY...ONSHORE
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM FROM THE SOUTHERN CHOCO INTO THE BORDER WITH ECUADOR.
ACCUMULATIONS DECREASE ON TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN INCREASING
ONSHORE COMPONENT IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
AMOUNTS TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE A
REACTIVATION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH/ITCZ IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA/WESTERN VENEZUELA FAVORS 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 07/00 07/12 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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