583
FXCA20 KWBC 071234
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
734 AM EST TUE NOV 07 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI NOV 07/12UTC:
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AS EXPECTED...HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW
ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.25 INCHES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK...POSSIBLY DECREASING TO THE NORMAL RANGE ON SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH EASTERN PR AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST TO NORTHWEST
PR RECEIVING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OVER THE 5-DAY
PERIOD...THOUGH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE USVI ALSO COULD OBSERVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE VICINITY EACH DAY...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ALSO BEING THE DAYS
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT FOR THE AMOUNT OF RAIN
EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS MODEL STILL BEING MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN THAN THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT ON THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND GOOD THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST EGDI ALGORITHM IS
INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN VERY ISOLATED TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THEREAFTER.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR HONDURAS...IS EXTENDING EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BUT IT IS WEAKENING...AND A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND PR BY
WEDNESDAY. A BROADER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA ON THURSDAY...DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAY THEREAFTER. A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N/64W AND
ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH IS MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS
IT WEAKENS...ALLOWING FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN REGION AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC...BUT A LOW PRESSURE NEAR 31N/60W AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL CAUSE THE LOCAL
WINDS TO BE MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY. THE LOCAL WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONGER AND EASTERLY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS A
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN PR...AS WELL AS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR COULD HAVE NEAR 4.5 INCHES OF
RAIN...MOSTLY DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN PR. THE USVI COULD HAVE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES DURING THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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