208
FXCA20 KWBC 071626
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1125 AM EST TUE NOV 07 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 07 NOV 2023 AT 1630 UTC: A POLAR TROUGH IS
PROPAGATING EAST WHILE EXTENDING ITS AXIS NEAR BERMUDA. THIS IS
FAVORING AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL PRESSURES OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE USA. THESE ARE PUSHING A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO INTO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...NORTHERN HONDURAS. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE EXTENDING JUST NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO OR NEAR 19N...CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA...JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST CUBA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...NORTHEAST HONDURAS. BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT THE
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO...CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...INTO A WEAKENING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY...FORECAST ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO PROVIDENCIA AND THE
COSTA RICA-NICARAGUA BORDER. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHERN HONDURAS/EASTERN GUATEMALA WHERE MOIST
ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN
JAMAICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 10MM. IN EASTERN HISPANIOLA EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15MM. IN PUERTO RICO/VI AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE SHEAR
LINE AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH STRUCTURE ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH A MOIST PLUME...TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
SHEAR LINE CONVECTION WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN/EASTERN NICARAGUA. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE SHEAR LINE
TO LOSE DEFINITION. YET...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE
LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS IN PUERTO RICO/VI AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. IN
EAST JAMAICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM WHILE IN HONDURAS AND NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE MOIST
PLUME ALONG THE FRONT TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN
PUERTO RICO EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
TO THE WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PRESS FROM THE
WESTERN USA INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE
SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND FAVOR DYNAMICS FOR
ASCENT GRADUALLY...STARTING ON TUESDAY AND PEAKING ON THURSDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF SINALOA WHERE EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA/NORTH
DURANGO INTO NORTHERN COAHUILA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 10MM. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT A POTENT SURFACE FRONT TO ENTER FROM THE USA
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHERN COAHUILA...CENTRAL DURANGO INTO CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST ABOVE THE
FRONTAL AIR MASS...EXPECT ISENTROPIC LIFT TO HIGHLIGHT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
DENSE CLOUD COVER. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF NORTHERN
SINALOA...AND 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTHERN
COAHUILA AND EASTERN CHIHUAHUA. ELSEWHERE FROM NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
INTO CENTRAL DURANGO EXPECT GENERALLY MAXIMA UNDER 10MM/DAY. UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH...EXPECT
DESTABILIZATION IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...WHICH WILL FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE WESTERN EJE VOLCANICO AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE EJE VOLCANICO.
A DECREASING TREND IN ACCUMULATIONS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. WITH EXCEPTION OF FRONTAL AND SHEAR LINE
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY IN THE 15-25MM/DAY
RANGE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM ON WEDNESDAY IN MOST OF NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COSTA RICA. ON THURSDAY THIS DECREASES
FURTHER TO MAXIMA OF 15MM. LARGER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA...GIVEN SHEAR
LINE CONVERGENCE INITIALLY AND THEN CONTINUED MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.
THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA GENERALLY IN THE 15-35MM/DAY RANGE.
A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO NORTHEAST VENEZUELA ON TUESDAY. A MOIST PLUME
ASSOCIATES WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH
ITCZ CONVERGENCE...WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
FROM TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO NORTH INTO MARTINIQUE ON TUESDAY. INLAND
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN GUYANA EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MEANDER WESTWARD TO EXTEND
IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
15-30MM...AND NEAR THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION ON THURSDAY WHERE IT
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TRAIL BEHIND
THIS WAVE. ALSO IN SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECT AN ACTIVATION TREND IN
COLOMBIA. MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
COAST...FROM A PRECIPITABLE WATER POOL OF 60-65MM...WILL FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN WESTERN COLOMBIA AND THE EJE
CAFETERO ON WEDNESDAY...INCREASING TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM ON THURSDAY. IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-30MM/DAY ON WEDNESDAY INCREASING TO 20-35MM ON THURSDAY.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 08/00 08/12 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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