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FXCA20 KWBC 081241
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
741 AM EST WED NOV 08 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI NOV 08/12UTC:
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY...AND
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 2.3 INCHES. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER END OF NORMAL WITH VALUES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST EACH DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH EASTERN PR AND
THE USVI BEING CONSISTENT WITH THE DAILY RAINFALL...WHILE THE
WESTERN INTERIOR TO WESTERN PR HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS TODAY...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN FORECAST THEREAFTER.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE GFS MODEL IS
SUGGESTING SLIGHTLY MORE THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN MODELS IS NOT AS MUCH. THE LATEST EGDI ALGORITHM IS
INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK...THEN VERY ISOLATED TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND. THAT SAID...WITH EXPECTED
WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS OR HIGHER...AND THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...AN ADVECTIVE PATTERN OF OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WOULD BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR LATE IN THE WORKWEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED BETWEEN
HISPANIOLA AND PR TODAY. A BROADER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA ON THURSDAY...DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN UNTIL SATURDAY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING
NORTH EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS IT WEAKENS...ALLOWING FOR
A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN REGION AND
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK. A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...BUT A LOW
PRESSURE NOW NEAR 38N/48W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WILL CAUSE THE LOCAL WINDS TO BE MAINLY
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY. THE LOCAL WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER AND
EASTERLY BY THURSDAY AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN PR COULD HAVE
NEAR 4 TO 4.5 INCHES OF RAIN...MOSTLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
ADVECTIVE SHOWERS EXPECTED. WESTERN INTERIOR INTO WESTERN PR COULD
OBSERVE OVER 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN...TODAY BEING THE DAY WITH MOST
ACCUMULATION DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. THE USVI COULD HAVE BETWEEN 1
AND 1.5 INCHES DURING THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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