064
FXCA20 KWBC 081659
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EST WED NOV 08 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 08 NOV 2023 AT 1700 UTC: IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
BROAD POLAR TROUGH EXTENDS OVER BERNUDA AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF
THE USA...WHILE A RIDGE CENTERS OVER NORTHEAST NICARAGUA. THE
TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC...WHICH IS FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THE SYSTEM OF
INTEREST...AS IT IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST PLUME LOCATED JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A SHORT WAVE
UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO IN WEDNESDAY MORNING IS ALSO
PLAYING A ROLE IN ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IN TERMS OF FORECAST FRONT POSITIONS...BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO ALONG 19N JUST TO THE NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO INTO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA...INTO
AN ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY INTO EAST HONDURAS. BY THURSDAY EVENING
EXPECT A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 19N JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO...CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...INTO AN ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY JUST
NORTH OF JAMAICA AND ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. BY FRIDAY EVENING
EXPECT A WEAKENING BOUNDARY ALONG 19N NORTH OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST HISPANIOLA. THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR THE LARGEST RAINFALL TOTALS IN HISPANIOLA...PARTICULARLY IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...GIVEN PERSISTENCE OVER A THREE-DAY
PERIOD. EXPECT STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS REACHING 75-150MM IN THREE
DAYS. REGARDING 24-HR FORECAST TOTALS...ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
PUERTO RICO. ON THURSDAY THIS INCREASES TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM IN HISPANIOLA...WHILE IN PUERTO RICO EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PORTIONS. ON
FRIDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC WHILE IN EAST PUERTO RICO EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE. GIVEN LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY DECREASING
AFTER.
ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS MEXICO/GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE
COMBINED EFFECTS OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN USA AND AN
APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION.
INITIALLY/ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT TI EXTEND ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO NORTH CHIHUAHUA. BY THURSDAY EVENING THE
FRONT IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN
COAHUILA...CENTRAL DURANCO INTO CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA/EASTERN SIERRA
TARAHUMARA. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...A LOW NEAR 26N 96W...NORTH VERACRUZ...INTO
THE CENTRAL MEXICAN PLATEAU. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ENHANCED
UPPER DIVERGENCE/ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST PLUME IN WEST MEXICO TO FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTHERN SINALOA/NORTHWEST
DURANGO. DOWNSTREAM ACROSS EAST CHIHUAHUA EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY
UNDER 10MM/DAY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-30MM IN THE SIERRA MADRE OF SINALOA WHILE DENSE OVERCASTS
DEVELOP IN AREAS TO THE EAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL
INVERSION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. IN THESE OVERCASE AREAS FROM
CHIHUAHUA EAST INCO COAHUILA AND NORTH DURANGO EXPECT MAXIMA
GENERALLY NEAR 10MM/DAY...ALTHOUGH ENHANCED ASCENT NEAR THE RIO
BRAVO WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN EAST CHIHUAHUA AND NORTH
COAHUILA. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW IN CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL TO FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS/NORTH
NUEVO LEON AS THE WARM ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK ALONG THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STIMULATES ASCENT. NOTE A REACTIVATION OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FAVOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM OAXACA/GUERRERO NORTH INTO HIDALGO/MEXICO/QUERETARO...TO
FAVOR AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
DUE TO THE EXPECTED REACTIVATION OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW
CIRCULATION. MODELS CONTINUE RESOLVING ENHANCED MOIST ONSHORE
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WEST COAST OF
COLOMBIA/EJE CAFETERO. THIS FLOW ORIGINATES IN A REGION OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEARING 60-70MM AND BECOMES LONG FETCH FROM THE
WEST BY FRIDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ON A DAILY BASIS...TO PRODUCE 3-DAY TOTALS OF
100-200MM IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST COLOMBIA...PARTICULARLY THE
CHOCO. AS THE PANAMANIAN LOW REACTIVATES AND THE CARIBBEAN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET GAINS FORCE ON THURSDAY AND ON...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS SAN
ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA INTO EAST NICARAGUA...WHICH WILL FAVOR A
REACTIVATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN TERMS OF 24-HR RAINFALL TOTALS...ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN WEST
COLOMBIA INCLUDING THE EJE CAFETERO. IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA/EAST
COSTA RICA/BOCAS DEL TORO EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON THURSDAY
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WESTERN COLOMBIA TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM...WHILE IN EAST HONDURAS/EAST NICARAGUA AND ADJACENT
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON
FRIDAY EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM IN MOSF OF
WESTERN COLOMBIA. INLAND ACROSS NROTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA/MAGDALENA
MEDIO EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. EXPECT SIMILAR
ACCUMULATION IN EAST HONDURAS/EAST NICARAGUA AND IN ADJACENT
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 09/00 09/12 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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