674
FXCA20 KWBC 091245
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
744 AM EST THU NOV 09 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI NOV 09/12UTC:
THE OVERALL RAINFALL PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR EACH DAY OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF RAIN...EASTERN PR
AND THE USVI WILL HAVE A PERSISTENT ADVECTIVE RAINFALL
PATTERN...WHILE WESTERN PR WOULD HAVE SOME CONVECTION TODAY...BUT
WEAKER CONVECTION AND LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN FROM THIS WEEKEND
ONWARD. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL PLAY A ROLE ON THE AMOUNT OF
TOTAL DAILY RAINFALL EXPECTED...AND IT CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY AND POSSIBLY TOMORROW AS WELL. MOISTURE WILL START TO
DECREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER
END OF NORMAL ON SATURDAY...DECREASING EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2 AND 2.3 INCHES
EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY...THEN BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.1 ON
SATURDAY...DECREASING TO 1.8 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN 1.6 BY
SUNDAY EVENING.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS INTO HISPANIOLA...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE IN TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING NORTH EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS IT
WEAKENS...ALLOWING FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN REGION AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC...TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CAUSING
WINDS TO REMAIN EASTERLY AND NEAR 15 KNOTS TODAY...GETTING A BIT
STRONGER FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN PR COULD HAVE
NEAR 4 INCHES OF RAIN...MOSTLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ADVECTIVE
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR COULD OBSERVE
NEAR 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN DURING THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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