852
FXCA20 KWBC 091733
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1233 PM EST THU NOV 09 2023
..NEXT BULLETIN ON MONDAY 13 NOVEMBER 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 09 NOV 2023 AT 1730 UTC: A SURFACE FRONT IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN USA INTO MEXICO. GIVEN THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN USA/NORTHWEST
MEXICO...WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTING ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET...EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO. REGARDING FRONTAL
POSITIONS...ON THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS EAST
COAHUILA...NORTHERN ZACATECAS...CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA. BY FRIDAY
EVENING THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...A 25.5N
96W...NORTH VERACRUZ INTO THE CENTRAL MEXICAN PLATEAU...CENTRAL
CHIHUAHUA. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND BY SATURDAY
EVENING IT IS FORECAST IN THE SAME POSITIONS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ENTERING THE CONTINENT IN CENTRAL VERACRUZ...CENTRAL
MEXICAN PLATEAU...WEST DURANGO AND CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA. ON THURSDAY
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTHERN
COAHUILA...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL NORTHERN MEXICO AND ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF SINALOA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON
FRIDAY...UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTHEAST
MEXICO...WHILE ACCUMULATIONS DECREASE TO THE WEST. IN NORTHERN
VERACRUZ/SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL...UPSLOPE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. ON SATURDAY...UPPER JET
DYNAMICS WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHEAST
MEXICO. UPSTREAM ACEOSS SOUTHERN SINALOA/NAYARIT AND
ZACATECAS/AGUASCALIENTES EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO STIMULATE ASCENT IN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO CONTINUE FAVORING AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST FROM PRUEBLA/OAXACA
INTO MORELOS/MEXICO WHERE AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST IN THE 05-10MM/DAY
AND 15-25MM RANGE. ON FRIDAY EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS FROM OAXACA
PUEBLA INTO QUERETARO/GUANAJUATO. ON SATURDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-25MM IN MOST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO INTO QUERETARO...MEXICO AND
GUANAJUATO.
TO THE EAST...ENHANCED NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
CONTINUE ORGANIZING IN THREE SURFACE FRONTS...MOSTLY LOCATED OVER
OPEN WATERS. THE SOUTHERN FRONT IS HOWEVER AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
ANTILLES. BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO BECOME
STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OR ALONG 19N INT CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...NORTH OF
JAMAICA...CAYMAN ISLANDS. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT A FRONTOLIZING
BOUNDARY ALONG 20N INTO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. BY SATURDAY EVENING
EXPECT A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE TO DEVELOP AND EXTEND ALONG 20N
INTO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. NOTE THAT EASTERLY TRADES ARE ALSO
ACCELERATING ALONG THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO AREAS JUST NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA/SOUTHEAST CUBA. THIS WILL HIGHLIGHT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IN EASTERN SLOPES OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...EXPECT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MODERATE PRECIPITATION...LIKELY TO REACH MAXIMA NEAR 150MM
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN HISPANIOLA...MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN PUERTO RICO AND 15-30MM IN JAMAICA. ON FRIDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN SOUTHEAST CUBA AND
JAMAICA. ON SATURDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA WITH THE SHEAR LINE...WHILE IN SOUTHEAST CUBA
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ONSHORE FLOW INTO EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15...WHILE IN THE
HAITIAN PENINSULA AND JAMAICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
THE PANAMANIAN LOW CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. THIS WILL FAVOR THE LARGEST
ACCUMULATIONS IN WESTERN COLOMBIA DUE TO LONG-FETCH ONSHORE
FLOW...FROM A REGION OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS NEAR 65MM. THE
ACCELERATING TRADES IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALSO STIMULATE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN EAST NICARAGUA AND ADJACENT CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AS
THE MOIST PLUME MAKES ITS WAY WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND...EXPECT
AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION IN
PORTIONS OF CENTAL AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ON THURSDAY
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN WESTERN COLOMBIA/EJE CAFETERO WHILE
ELSEWHERE IN COLOMBIA EXPECT GENERALLY MAXIOMA OF 20-35MM. IN EAST
NICARAGUA/EAST HONDURAS AND CARIBBEAN ISLANDS EXPECT MAXIMA OF
20-40MM. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-125MM IN WESTERN COLOMBIA
WHILE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
IN EAST HONDURAS/EAST NICARAGUA AND CARIBBEAN ISLANDS EXPECT ALSO
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON SATURDAY...THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET ACROSS SAN ANDRES INTO CENTRAL NICARAGUA WILL FAVOR ENHANCED
ASCENT IN SOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA...WHERE
EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
CARIBBEAN WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN WEST PANAMA. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST ECUADOR DUE
TO MOIST ONSHORE FLOW.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 10/00 10/12 11/00 11/12 12/00 12/12 13/00 13/12
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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