575
FXUS01 KWBC 120712
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2023
VALID 12Z SUN NOV 12 2023 - 12Z TUE NOV 14 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS...
...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY; LIGHT SNOW OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVER PARTS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...
A FRONT LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE GULF COAST WILL
SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST, WHILE A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE BOUNDARY MOVES TO JUST SOUTH
OF LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION, UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL AID IN
DRAWING MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO, PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF TEXAS
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON MONDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DECREASES SLIGHTLY TO
A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
MEANWHILE, A FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN THE BOUNDARY MOVES
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH LATE
MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN
CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MOREOVER, ON SUNDAY, A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. WIND OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST,
PRODUCING RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.
ZIEGENFELDER
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