106
FXCA20 KWBC 131250
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
749 AM EST MON NOV 13 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI NOV 13/12UTC:
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE
PREVAILING EASTERLY WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY. NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE OBSERVED TODAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS
PR/USVI. THIS COMBINATION WILL CAUSE FAIRLY MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...WITH AN ADVECTIVE RAINFALL PATTERN ACROSS
EASTERN PR AND THE USVI. LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PR IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY. FOR
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY CAUSE THE LOCAL
WINDS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK.
ALTHOUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY DRY...THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL MOISTURE INCREASE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...COULD CAUSE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
PR TO HAVE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AFFECTING THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE
SLOPES DUE TO THE ONSHORE WIND FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. THAT
BEING SAID...THE MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE AREA WILL DEPEND ON
THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE MODELS HAVE
SOME AGREEMENT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE EGDI
ALGORITHM INDICATES A RATHER LOW RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THIS WEEK. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A VERY LIMITED
AREAL COVERAGE AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PR
TODAY AND TUESDAY...HOWEVER. AT THE SAME TIME...IT WOULD BE
CONSISTENT WITH BRIEF SHOWERS OVER THE USVI THIS WEEK. THE
ALGORITHM DOES INCREASE THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS SIGNIFICANTLY
LATE ON FRIDAY...THOUGH MOSTLY FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO
PERHAPS THE MONA PASSAGE...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE UNTIL THE
MODELS SHOW MORE CONSISTENCY.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN PR COULD HAVE
NEAR 2 INCHES OF RAIN...MOSTLY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ADVECTIVE
SHOWERS EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY...THEN THE POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WORKWEEK WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH THE ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. WESTERN PUERTO RICO
IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE NEAR 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE 5-DAY
PERIOD...WITH TODAY AND TUESDAY BEING THE RAINIEST DAYS OVER THE
AREA DUE TO AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE USVI IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE
BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PERIOD...MAINLY DUE TO
BRIEF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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