205
FXCA20 KWBC 132041
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 PM EST MON NOV 13 2023
NOTE: THE WPC INTERNATIONAL DESKS IS MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
MJO CONDITIONS. REGARDLESS OF EVOLUTION OF THE
DISTURBANCE...ALREADY BEING MONITORED BY THE NHC...THE POTENTIAL
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS PARTICULARLY FOR JAMAICA...HAITI AND
FAR SOUTHEAST CUBA...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND SPECIFIC RAINFALL TOTALS
CONTINUES HIGH...BUT EXPECT AREAS WITH FIVE-DAY AMOUNTS
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 10 INCHES...AND 15 INCHES LOCALLY IN
PORTIONS OF THE HAITIAN PENINSULA.
FORECAST BULLETIN 13 NOV 2023 AT 1830 UTC: A POTENT UPPER TROUGH
IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST USA...AND IS FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH A SURFACE FRONT LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT. ON MONDAY EVENING...THE FRONT
IS FORECAST ALONG 27N FROM 60W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...A LOW NEAR
27N 93W...TO A STATIONARY FRONT INTO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...CENTRAL
MEXICAN PLATEAU. BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...A LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
DELTA...A COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/TABASCO...CHIVELA PASS
INTO NORTHERN OAXACA. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
ALONG 23N 70W...NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...A LOW AT 27N
88W...NORTH-CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...TABASCO...CHIVELA PASS. A
SHEAR LINE IS ALSO EXPECTED ON MONDAY EVENING...FORECAST TO EXTEND
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO CENTRAL CUBA...SOUTH QUINTANA ROO.
THE SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO REFORM ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHEN
IT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. INITIALLY...EXPECTSCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION
IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO TO FAVOR XCATTERED MAXIMA
GENERALLY UNDER 10MM/DAY. LARGER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/OAXACA...WHERE OROGRAPHIC ASCENT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN QUINTANA ROO FROM SHEAR
LINE CONVECTION. IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM WITH BOTH FRONT
AND SHEAR LINE. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT FRONTAL CONVECTION TO PRODUCE
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. IN
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
A RISK OF ECHO TRAINING DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS
WILL FAVOR 20 - 40MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 75-125MM.
ANOTHER SYSTEM OF INTEREST IF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE BREWING IN
THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. INITIALLY...ENHANCED TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE AND A SURFACR TROUGH WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM IN EAST HONDURAS/EAST NICARAGUA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.
IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA...NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM AS WELL DUE TO OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT. ONSHORE FLOW
IN NORTHERN HONDURAS AND BELIZE WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO FAVOR AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATION IN EAST
HONDURAS/EAST NICARAGUA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS...WHERE EXPECT
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FOR MCS
FORMATION. IN NORTHWEST HONDURAS/CENTRAL GUATEMALA EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 35-70MM...WHILE IN NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE
IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN HONDURAS...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECAST TO START DECREASING. IN NORTHWEST HONDURAS EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE IN EAST HONDURAS AND
EAST NICARAGUA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 35-70MM.
ANOTHER REGION WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE IS
COLOMBIA...AS ENHANCED MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE PACIFIC BASIN. THIS WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM INITIALLY...INCREASING TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM ON TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN CENTRAL
COLOMBIA...WHILE IN THE REST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 14/00 14/12 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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