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FXCA20 KWBC 141246
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
746 AM EST TUE NOV 14 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI NOV 14/12UTC:
THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.
ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEST OF PR/USVI...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS AND SOUTHERN PR FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...FROM TODAY INTO THURSDAY...A
RELATIVELY BENIGN RAINFALL PATTERN IS FORECAST...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE USVI AND EASTERN PR...WHILE VERY LIMITED
CONVECTION COULD AFFECT WESTERN PR IN THE AFTERNOONS...IF ANY.
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CAUSE
EASTERLY WINDS TODAY. FOR LATE THURSDAY ONWARD...THE DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...WILL GRADUALLY CAUSE THE LOCAL WINDS TO SHIFT
SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK. NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE OBSERVED TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN MOISTURE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
MOISTURE INCREASE FRIDAY ONWARD COULD CAUSE THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PR TO HAVE PERSISTENT SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE SLOPES DUE TO THE ONSHORE WIND FLOW AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE AREA
WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND
THE MODELS HAVE SOME AGREEMENT BUT SOME MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM
FURTHER EAST THAN OTHERS. SO THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EGDI ALGORITHM CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A LOW RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH INCREASING RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON
THURSDAY...EACH DAY THEREAFTER HAVING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE 5-DAY RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EAST/SOUTHEAST PR COULD
HAVE NEAR 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN. WESTERN PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO
OBSERVE NEAR 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE 5-DAY PERIOD. THE USVI IS
FORECAST TO OBSERVE BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH OF RAIN OVER THE
PERIOD. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE THE DRIEST
DAYS...WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD INCREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY
THEREAFTER.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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