768
FXCA20 KWBC 141911
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
211 PM EST TUE NOV 14 2023
NOTE: THE WPC INTERNATIONAL DESKS IS MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
MJO CONDITIONS. REGARDLESS OF EVOLUTION OF THE DISTURBANCE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS PARTICULARLY IN
JAMAICA...HAITI AND FAR SOUTHEAST CUBA. THE MOST CRITICAL PERIODS
ARE LIKELY TO CLUSTER DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN JAMAICA...AND
DURING FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY IN HISPANIOLA.
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION AND SPECIFIC RAINFALL TOTALS
CONTINUES HIGH...BUT EXPECT AREAS WITH FIVE-DAY AMOUNTS
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 10 INCHES...AND 15 INCHES LOCALLY IN
PORTIONS OF THE HAITIAN PENINSULA.
FORECAST BULLETIN 14 NOV 2023 AT 1815 UTC: A POTENT UPPER TROUGH
IS PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE USA AND
ITS BASE EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHWEST YUCATAN PENINSULA
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE LOW
LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LOUISIANA AND WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD...IT IS
EXPECTED TO STIMULATE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FAR
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS/SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...FAVORING HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN TERMS OF FRONTAL POSITIONS...ON TUESDAY EVENING
EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND ALONG 25N 70W...CENTRAL BAHAMAS...SOUTH
FLORIDA...A LOW JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA...TABASCO...CHIVELA
PASS...SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT THE
FRONT ALONG 24N 68W INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...28N
85W...NORTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA...NORTHERN CHIAPAS...CHIVELA
PASS. BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT A LOW JUST NORTH OF GREAT ABACO
IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FROM THE LOW
SOUTH ACROSS NEW PROVIDENCE...NORTHWEST CUBA...CENTRAL QUINTANA
ROO...CHIVELA PASS. THIS WILL FAVOR A PERSISTENT TEHUANTEPECER JET
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...INITIALLY...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. ONSHORE FLOW IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT A RISK OF ECHO TRAINING
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WHERE EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION IN CENTRAL CUBA
AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ONSHORE/UPSLOPE IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/CHIAPAS WILL FAVOR
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA/NORTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT CYCLOGENESIS TO FAVOR 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM IN THE FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WHILE IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA/CAYMAN ISLANDS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
UPSLOPE FLOW IN SOUTHERN MEXICO/WESTERN GUATEMALA WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
A REGION OF INTEREST IS THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF
OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE IN THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WHICH WILL FAVOR SEVERAL DAYS OF MODERATE
AND LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THIS IS
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE IN NORTHERN HONDURAS EARLY AND CENTRAL/EASTERN
GUATEMALA IN THE FORECAST CYCLE TO FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THIS WILL FAVOR AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-80MM ON
TUESDAY...INCLUDING ISLAS DE LA BAHIA...EXTENDING INTO SAN ANDRES
AND PROVIDENCIA. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM IN SOUTH BELIZE/NORTHWEST HONDURAS AND CENTRAL
GUATEMALA...WHILE IN NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND SAN
ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT A DECREASE TO MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTH-CENTRAL
HONDURAS. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO
JAMAICA WILL FAVOR AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 100-200MM
IN EASTERN JAMAICA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 75-150MM IN
THE WESTERN HAITIAN PENINSULA.
ALSO RELATED INDIRECTLY TO THE EVOLUTION IN THE CARIBBEAN...ITCZ
CONVECTION AND ONSHORE FLOW ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. ON TUESDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN
MOST OF WESTERN COLOMBIA...WHILE IN COSTA RICA/WEST PANAMA AND IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND THE
SANTANDERES...WHILE IN WESTERN COLOMBIA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 35-70MM.
IN MOST OF PANAMA AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
ON THURSDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM DEVELOPING IN FAR SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA AND SOUTHWEST PANAMA...WHILE IN THE REST OF COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 15/00 15/12 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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