573
FXCA20 KWBC 152022
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
322 PM EST WED NOV 15 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 15 NOV 2023 AT 1815 UTC: A POTENT UPPER TROUGH
IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN USA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IT EXTENDED ITS AXIS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
INTO CENTRAL HONDURAS. THIS TROUGH IS NOT ONLY INTERACTING WITH A
LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULTING IN THE UNDULATION
OF A SURFACE FRONT...BUT IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE
DISORGANIZED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN AS IT
PROPAGATES EASTWARD. IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO STIMULATE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY AND FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE MEANTIME. IN
TERMS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRAG
THE DOSIRGANIZED SURFACE LOW NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
JAMAICA/WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF
THE STRUCTURE OF THE LOW...BY SATURDAY THIS EVOLUTION WILL RESULT
IN THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A MOIST PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
ITCZ IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA/SOUTHWEST PANAMA...ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES. AS THIS MOIST PLUME MOVES
FROM THE JAMAICA/SOUTHEAST CUBA REGION ON THURSDAY THROUGH PUERTO
RICO BY SUNDAY...EXPECT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN SLOPES AND COASTS IN THE GREATER ANTILLES. NOTE
THAT MJO CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR A
WETTER FORECAST.
IN TERMS OF THE SURFACE FRONT...BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT A
BOUNDARY ALONG 24N 60W INTO THE NORT6HWEST BAHAMAS...TO 29N
85W...NORTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA...CENTRAL CHIAPAS...CHIVELA
PASS. BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT A LOW FORMING JUST NORTH OF GRAND
BAHAMA AND A FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...NORTHWEST CUBA...COZUNEL...FAR NORTHWEST
GUATEMALA...CHIVELA PASS. BY FRIDAY...EXPECT A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...JUST WEST OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS...CENTRAL GUATEMALA. A SHEAR LINE
IS ALSO PRESENT AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING IS FORECAST ACROSS 20N
55W INTO THE NORTHERN VI. BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ACROSS 20N
50W INTO DOMINICA. IT IS THEN FORECAST TO RETREAT EASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE CARIBBEAN. A TEHUANTEPECER LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO FORECAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TROPICAL
PPACIFIC DECREASES. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL WITH THE FRONT...ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM IN THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH A RISK FOR ECHO TRAINING. PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA/SOUTHERN MEXICO
EXPECT GENERALLY MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...HOWEVER...ENHANCED OROGRAPHIG
UPLIFT JUST NORTH OF THE CUIVELA PASS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. PREFRONTAL NORTHERLIES WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN
CENTRAL GUATEMALA AND NORTHWEST HONDURAS. ON THURSDAY EXPECT
15-30MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN THE FAR NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...WHILE IN ANDROS ISLAND THROUGH CAT ISLAND EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM. IN NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS. IN
SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SLOPES FROM SOUTHERN VERACRUZ INTO NORTHWEST
HONDURAS. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ISLAS DE LA
BAHIA AND NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15-20MM IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND IN CENTRAL CUBA AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SIMILAR AMOUTNS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN
HONDURAS.
REGARDING THE DISTURBANCE IN THE CARIBBEAN...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDNESDAY TO CLUSTER IN SAN ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA
AND IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA WHERE EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-70MM. ITCZ CONVECTION IN MOST OF
PANAMA WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST IN EASTERN JAMAICA...WHERE AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST IN THE
25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 100-200MM RANGE. IN THE WESTERN HAITIAN
PENINSULA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. IN SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA/SOUTHWEST PANAMA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN COASTAL
LOCATIONS...AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ELSEWHERE IN COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. ON FRIDAY EXPECT THE HEAVIEST IN EASTERN JAMAICA...THE
HAITIAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHEAST CUBA WHERE EXPECT 25-50MM/DAY AND
VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 100-200MM. ONSHORE FLOW AND UPSLOPE IN THE
SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ESPECT
SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN WESTERN JAMAICA. IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA/WESTERN
PANAMA...ITCZ INFLOW WILL FAVOR 20-40MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
50-100MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 16/00 16/12 17/00 17/12 18/00 18/12 19/00 19/12
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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