400
FXUS01 KWBC 160801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EST THU NOV 16 2023
VALID 12Z THU NOV 16 2023 - 12Z SAT NOV 18 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...
...WET/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...
...ANOTHER MILD DAY FOR THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED JUST SOUTH
OF FLORIDA AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE FETCH OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S., INCLUDING FLORIDA TODAY. ANOMALOUS
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SURFACE LOW NEAR FLORIDA AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SPOT RAINFALL MAXIMA OVER 5
INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE THREAT FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
EARLY, TRANSLATING NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE FOR FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN PENINSULA TODAY DUE TO AN
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
ACROSS THE WEST COAST, A SLOW MOVING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, INCLUDING A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
CENTRAL COAST OF THE GOLDEN STATE. WHILE RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS WITH
GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOWFALL ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON
FRIDAY.
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE GREAT PLAINS, GREAT LAKES,
MIDWEST AND EAST COAST, MILD WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE MID-NOVEMBER AVERAGES. IN FACT, PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 60S TODAY WHICH IS 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. A COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
AVERAGE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S.
BUT MILD CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
COUNTRY.
OTTO
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