064
FXCA20 KWBC 171251
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
750 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI NOV 17/12UTC:
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THE CHANCES OF WILL
INCREASE WITH EACH PASSING DAY INTO THE WEEKEND STARING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE TWENTY TWO MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL GO FROM NORMAL VALUES OF 1.6 INCHES OR SO
THIS MORNING...TO ABOVE NORMAL NEAR 2.3 INCHES ON SATURDAY...THEN
STAYING AROUND THE 2.0 - 2.2 INCH RANGE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY TWO CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THE BAHAMAS...AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC...THE LOCAL WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHEASTERLY
TODAY...TO SSE ON SATURDAY THEN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT BY TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD START MOVING SOUTH FROM THE ATLANTIC AND APPROACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.
THE OVERALL PATTERN WOULD THEN FAVOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PR...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF
RAIN ACROSS THE USVI. NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PR IS FORECAST
TO RECEIVE THE LEAST AMOUNTS OF RAIN. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY COULD
PROVIDE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERN
PR...DUE TO THE ONSHORE WIND FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION.
THEREFORE AMOUNTS OF TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD BE OBSERVED ACROSS
SOME AREAS IN THE 24-HR PERIOD ENDING SATURDAY MORNING...AS WELL
AS THE 24-HR PERIOD FROM SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FROM SUNDAY DURING THE DAY AND ONWARD...THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO DECREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY...WITH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BEING THE PERIOD WITH LOWEST RAIN ACCUMULATION AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST IS TO REACH 3-5 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO...ACCUMULATING PARTICULARLY FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PR IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE THE LOWEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 0.25 INCHES
IN THE 5-DAY PERIOD. THE USVI COULD OBSERVE 1 - 1.5 INCHES THROUGH
THE 5-DAY PERIOD.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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