468
FXCA20 KWBC 171742
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1242 PM EST FRI NOV 17 2023
NOTE: A RISK FOR EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES IN SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA AS FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FLOWING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC ITCZ. THIS
WILL FAVOR 3-DAY TOTALS EXCEEDING 300MM OR 12 INCHES.
HOWEVER...NOTE THAT THE PEAK OF THE EVENT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WHEN AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 100-200MM IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND
SOUTHWEST PANAMA. IN NORTHWEST COSTA RICA AND IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
PANAMA EXPECT GENERALLY MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON SATURDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 75-125MM IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHWEST PANAMA. BY
SUNDAY...THIS DECREASES TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM
CLUSTERING FROM CHIRIQUI IN PANAMA THROUGH NORTHWEST COSTA RICA.
FORECAST BULLETIN 17 NOV 2023 AT 1640 UTC: A POTENT MID-UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WEST CUBA INTO WEST
EL SALVADOR ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT
HAS A MARKED INFLUENCE IN THE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE. ACCORDINGLY...IT
IS INTERACTING WITH TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...ONE LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...AND ANOTHER JUST SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. NOTE THAT THE NHC
IS MONITORING THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY...P.T.C. TWENTY-TWO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE
LATTER SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
JAMAICA...SOUTHEAST CUBA...SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS AS IT MEANDERS NORTHEASTWARD WHILE
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
IN THE MEANTIME...A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LOOSE
DEFINITION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. YET BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...JUST WEST OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...NORTHERN HONDURAS. THIS WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND NORTHERN HONDURAS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A NEW FRONT IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE ON
SATURDAY...AND BY THE EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA...CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. BY
SUNDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WEST
JAMAICA...NORTHEAST HONDURAS. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACTS
ON PRECIPITATION GIVEN ITS FORMATION UNDER A DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC
AIR MASS. ONLY ON SUNDAY...IT WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-30MM IN NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND TURKS AND CAICOS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MOIST PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ALREADY DISSIPATED
P.T.C. TWENTY TWO.
ALSO NORTH IN THE DOMAIN...A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SATURDAY...AND BY THE EVENING
IT SI FORECAST ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA/SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA. BY SUNDAY EVENING IT IS FORECAST TO START DISSIPATING
WHILE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN COAHUILA INTO CENTRAL SINALOA/LOS
CABOS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXERT LIMITED
EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION GIVEN LIMITED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...HOWEVER A LINGERING MOIST PLUME WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN NORTH-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE THE SYSTEM ARRIVES.
REGARDING THE EFFECTS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
TWENTY-TWO...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON FRIDAY...TO CLUSTER IN
SOUTHEAST CUBA AND FAR EASTERN JAMAICA...WHERE MAXIMA OF 100-175MM
IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IN JAMAICA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. IN THE
HAITIAN PENINSULA EXPECT MAXIMA OF 75-125MM...WHILE IN THE
SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS
AND CAICOS EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY AWAY WHILE DRAGGED BY THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...EXPECT A RAPID DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS
THEREAFTER. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
IN FAR SOUTHEAST CUBA AND THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND
CAICOS. IN SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA EXPECT STILL HEAVY AMOUNTS DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING. THIS WILL FAVOR 15-30MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM. IN PUERTO RICO EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 18/00 18/12 19/00 19/12 20/00 20/12 21/00 21/12
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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