277
FXCA20 KWBC 211549
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1049 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 21 NOV 2023 AT 1550 UTC: IN A PROGRESSIVE TRAIN
OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES PROPAGATING IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES...PROGRESSIVE SURFACE FRONTS ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE
UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. BY TUESDAY EVENING...A FRONT IS
FORECAST LONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...TABASCO...NORTHERN CHIAPAS...CHIVELA PASS INTO THE
CENTRAL MEXICAN PLATEAU AND SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA...JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO A WEAKENING BOUNDARY
ACROSS PETEN...SOUTH BELIZE...CENTRAL GUATEMALA. BY THURSDAY
EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ALONG THE FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...SOUTH
FLORIDA...INTO A LOW NEAR 24N 92W. THIS EVENT WILL ALSO DEVELOP A
TEHUANTEPECER LOW-LEVEL JET...FORECAST LATE ON TUESDAY
EVENING...AND IS FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.
THE NORTES EVENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL START ENHANCING
OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT IN CHIAPAS ON TUESDAY...TO FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. WEST INTO GUERRERO/MORELOS EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN THE CENTRAL MEXICAN
PLATEAU...ENHANCEMENT BY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A PEAK IN RAINFALL IN TABASCO/CHIAPAS
WHERE AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM. IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...WHILE IN CENTRAL MEXICO FROM JALISCO TOWARDS NORTHERN
NUEVO LEON...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCEMENT BY UPPER JET DYNAMICS. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT LITTLE AMOUNTS WITH THE FRONT.
TO THE EAST...ANOTHER FRONT IS ORGANIZING IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC
AND...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ENHANCED NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...THE FRONT IS ENTERING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. BY TUESDAY
EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...JUST SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO AND JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA INTO EASTERN JAMAICA.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO...INTO A WEAKENING BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ZONALLY INTO JAMAICA. BY THURSDAY EVENING...EXPECT A
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...NORTHERN VI AREAS NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO ALONG 19N. THIS WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOALTED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...WHILE IN
PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN HISPANIOLA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VI AND PUERTO RICO. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
SIMILAR AMOUNTS STRETCHING FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ACROSS PUERTO
RICO/VI INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND PRECIPITATION ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA...PARTLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAKENING MJO. SEASONALITY AND EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ARE ALSO PLAYING A ROLE. MORELS CONTINUE SHOWING
A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...FORECAST TO
ROLL EAST FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUESDAY TO CENTER IN
SOUTHEAST CUBA BY THURSDAY WHILE EXPANDING ITS INFLUENCE. THIS
WILL NOT ONLY LIMIT ACCUMULATION IN MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BUT IN
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
STILL...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS. ON
TUESDAY...THIS WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-20MM IN COSTA RICA/WEST PANAMA AND IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA/LAKE
MARACAIBO REGION...WHILE IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A PEAK IN AMOUNTS IN
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST ECUADOR...WHERE AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM ARE EXPECTED. IN COSTA RICA/WEST
PANAMA AND CARIBBEAN ISLANDS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...WHILE IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA EXPECT ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...A TROUGH AND MOIST PLUME ARRIVE
INTO EAST NICARAGUA/EAST HONDURAS WHERE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM...WHILE IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA EXPECT ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
LONGITUDE POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12
UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 22/00 22/12 23/00 23/12 24/00 24/12 25/00 25/12
EW 12N 50W 53W 55W 58W 61W 64W 66W 68W 71W
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 50W AND SOUTH OF 12N. IT WILL
PRODUCE VERY MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION AS IT PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE GUIANAS THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. LARGER IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED IN BRAZIL WHERE HEAT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ARE MORE
SIGNIFICANT.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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