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FXCA20 KWBC 221548
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1048 AM EST WED NOV 22 2023
..NEXT ON FRIDAY NOVEMBER 24
FORECAST BULLETIN 22 NOV 2023 AT 1600 UTC: A LARGE SURFACE FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FAR
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT
ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA...NORTHWEST YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO A
WEAKENING BOUNDARY ALONG PETEN...EAST GUATEMALA...THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA AND WEST TO THE CHIVELA PASS...THE
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. BY THURSDAY
EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ALONG THE FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...FLORIDA
KEYS...A LOW NEAR 21N 94W. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...SOUTH FLORIDA...A LOW
NEAR 25N 90W...NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHERN USA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC
REMAINS ENHANCED...EXPECT A TEHUANTEPECER JET TO CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENS THEREAFTER.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL FAVOR
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN TABASCO AND NORTHERN CHIAPAS
ON WEDNESDAY. IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. NORTH FROM JALISCO/AGUASCALIENTES INTO NORTHEAST
MEXICO...ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM DUE TO ENHANCEMENT BY UPPER JET DYNAMICS. IN THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN OF GUATEMALA AND IN SOUTHERN BELIZE/NORTH HONDURAS
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS IN ISOLATED CONVECTION. ON
FRIDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
ANOTHER FRONT CONTINUES EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ALONG
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO INTO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO THEN START RETREATING NORTHWARD. BY THURSDAY
EVENING EXPECT THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...NORTHERN VI...JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO INTO THE SAMANA
REGION IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THE
FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...IT WILL GENERALLY FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VI AND
PUERTO RICO ON A DAILY BASIS. AS THE MOIST PLUME MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE FRONT...EXPECT A PEAK IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC ON WEDNESDAY WHEN EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM
IN EASTERN PORTIONS. IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM ON FRIDAY. NOTE THAT A
PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AND EXTEND
FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC ALONG 12N 55W INTO THE ORINOCO RIVER
DELTA/FAR NORTHERN GUYANA. THIS WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMES ENHANCED.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA EXPECT A GENERAL DECREASING TREND IN
ACCUMULATIONS. LOCAL ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST PLUME MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST. ON WEDNESDAY THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN
SAN ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA AND IN PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA. THIS PEAKS
ON THURSDAY TO INCLUDE EASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA
RICA...WHEN EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN
THE BASIN...AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA (SEE BELOW). ALSO OF RELEVANCE...CONTINUED MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE WEST ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA WILL
FAVOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION ON A DAILY BASIS. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ECUADOR. THIS DECREASES TO MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ON THURSDAY
AND INCREASES TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM ON FRIDAY.
LONGITUDE POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12
UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 23/00 23/12 24/00 24/12 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12
EW 12N 58W 60W 63W 65W 67W 70W 72W 74W 76W
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS PROPAGATING ACROSS GUYANA. ON WEDNESDAY IT
WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN NORTHERN
GUYANA...NORTHEAST VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM IN RORAIMA AND PARA IN BRASIL. ON THURSDAY IT WILL
FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN SOUTH VENEZUELA AND RORAIMA IN BRASIL.
ON FRIDAY IT WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN WOUTH
VENEZUELA...SOUTHEAST COLOMBIA AND WESTERN BRASIL...AS THE
CONVECTION STIMULATED BY THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH AN ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENT REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOLIVIAN HIGH/SUBTROPICAL
UPPER RIDGE OF SOUTH AMERICA.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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