804
FXCA20 KWBC 241230
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
730 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI NOV 24/12UTC:
A FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOIST PLUME EXTEND ALONG
BARBUDA...ANEGADA AND WEST ALONG 19N INTO THE SAMANA REGION IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS CONTINUE
OCCURRING ALONG THIS PLUME...PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN VI AND
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST
PUERTO RICO.
IN THE MID-LEVELS...A RIDGE CENTERS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TURKS
AND CAICOS AND ESTENDS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE
TRADE WIND CAP IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED JUST YET...WHICH IS
ALLOWING FOR SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL MOIST PLUME. MODELS ARE RESOLVING A
STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. THIS
INCLUDES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TRADE WIND CAP BELOW 850 HPA DURING
SATURDAY...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO MID NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT...THIS WILL FAVOR A DECREASE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION. IN THE
MEANTIME...EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WHILE THE MOIST PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LINGER IN
THE REGION. AS TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST...EXPECT MORNING SHOWERS IN THE VI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO WHILE AFTERNOON CONVECTION CLUSTERS IN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF
0.25-0.5 INCHES IN THE WESTERN VI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AND
AFTERNOON MAXIMA OF 0.4-0.6 INCHES IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CORDILLERA. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.3 INCHES IN
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO...WHILE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
FAVORS MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.5 INCHES.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ESTABLISH AFTER...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
DECREASES BELOW 30MM STARTING LATE SATURDAY EVENING. NOTE THAT
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 15-20MM BY MONDAY. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS...EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
ON SUNDAY AND PERSISTING AT LEAST INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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