043
FXCA20 KWBC 241604
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1104 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 24 NOV 2023 AT 1600 UTC: SEVERAL BOUNDARIES
EXTEND OVER THE NROTHERN BAHAMAS AND GULF OF MEXICO REGION ON
FRIDAY. THESE ARE FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS IN THE UPPER WESTERLIES AS THE BOUNDARIES MEANDER
NORTHWARD AND LOSE ORGANIZATION. IN THE MEANTIME...THE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY WILL AID WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 15MM/DAY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A MORE ROBUST POLAR FRONT ENTERS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY. BUT IT WILL INITIALLY HAVE
LIMITED IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION GIVEN LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...A SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES EXTENDING
ALONG 15N INTO THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES....WHERE THE BOUNDARY
CURVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST LEEWARD ISLANDS ALTHOUGH
THE BOUNDNARY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
LOSE DEFINITION...THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS A
SOURCE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS THROUGH SUNDAY...AS IT LINGER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. FURTHERMORE...A SHEAR LINE HAS
ORGANIZED AND BY FRIDAY EVENING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE ORINICO
DELTA. BY SATURDAY EVENING IT IS FORECAST JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
TRINIDAD...TO THEN DISSIPATE. INITIALLY...THE FRONT WILL FAVOR
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND DOWNSTREAM IN
PUERTO RICO AND VI. THE SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
NORTHERN GUYANA AND NORTHEAST VENEZUELA ON FRIDAY. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT A PEAK IN PRECIPITATION WITH THE SHEAR
LINE...WHICH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE ORINICO DELTA
REGION. ON SUNDAY...REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL FAVOR ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS ENHANCED OFF THE COAST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THIS MOIST PLUME WILL BE DRAWN
NORTHEARD INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO BY SUNDAY...AS THE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE MID AND UPPER FLOW INCREASES. THIS WILL FAVOR
SCATTERED ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM FROM
GUERRERO WEST INTO CAMPECHE AND NORTH INTO HIDALGO BY SUNDAY.
A DRYING TREND CONTINUES IN CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FAVOR MODERATE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA ON
SUNDAY...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO REMAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED AND PRODUCE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.
LONGITUDE POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12
UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 25/00 25/12 26/00 26/12 27/00 27/12 28/00 28/12
EW 12N 68W 70W 73W 76W 78W 80W DISS
AN ILL-DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE IS ACROSS WESTERN VENEZUELA/EASTERN
COLOMBIA. MOST OF THE IMPACTS IN TERMS OF THIS WAVE ARE OCCURRING
IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHERN BRAZIL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MOIST
POOL AND ENHANCED VENTILATION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BOLIVIAN HIGH/SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF
35-70MM ON FRIDAY...WHILE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA/WEST VENEZUELA IT
FAVORS MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON SATURDAY IT WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
IN ECUADOR/NORTH PERU AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
COLOMBIA. IT WILL HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS IN PRECIPITATION
THEREAFTER...AS THE REGION ENTERS AN ENHANCED UPPER CONVERGENT/DRY
LARGE SCALE PATTERN.
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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