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FXCA20 KWBC 271237
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
737 AM EST MON NOV 27 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI NOV 27/12UTC:
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH BRIEF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AND THE
USVI ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. A SIMILAR
PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK BUT WITH A BIT
MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THERE IS A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC KEEPING GENERALLY EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...A STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE THIS
WEEK...CAUSING SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS. IN THE MID
LEVELS...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THE WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THEN NORTHERLY AGAIN ON
FRIDAY.
THE LOCAL FORECAST ALGORITHMS...IN PARTICULAR THE EGDI...DOES NOT
SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND GIVEN
THE STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...IF THERE WERE ANY CONVECTION
IT WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW. THE TWIN ALGORITHM IS SUGGESTING THAT A
TRADE WIND INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT AT AROUND THE 850 HPA LEVEL
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK. THEREFORE...FAVORING MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEING ADVECTIVE AND SHALLOW. THAT BEING SAID...THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.1 AND 1.5
INCHES. A BRIEF INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD OCCUR LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR TO NORMAL AT ABOUT 1.6 TO
1.7 INCHES. THEREFORE..AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BE
EXPECTED IN THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK COMPARED TO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT IT WOULD STILL BE GENERALLY ADVECTIVE
SHOWERS AFFECTING EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI...WITH PERHAPS
VERY MINIMAL CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGEST THAT EASTERN PUERTO RICO
WOULD HAVE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN. THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
WILL HAVE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES. CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO
RICO ARE FORECAST TO HAVE UNDER A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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