466
FXCA20 KWBC 282004
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EST TUE NOV 28 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 28 NOV 2023 AT 2000 UTC: A SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSSTHE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO. BY TUESDAY EVENING
EXPECT A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CETNRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL
CUBA...BNORTHERN BELIZE...CHIVELA PASS...INTO A FRONTOLIZING
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT THE
BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA AND
REORGANIZE IN AREAS WEST...WHERE IT IS FORECAST EXTEND INTO THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS. BY THURSDAY
EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...NORTH CUBA.
A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO PRESENT AND BY TUESDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...SOUTHEAST CUBA...JAMAICA AND EAST
HONDURAS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS/INAGUA...FAR SOUTHEAST CUBA...JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS...TO THEN DISSIPATE. ON
TUESDAY...INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID-UPPER
TROPOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...WHILE
ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM NORTHERN VERACRUZ INTO NORTH OAXACA
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. FROM SOUTHERN VERACRUZ
THROUGH CENTRAL GUATEMALA...TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT WILL FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN NORTHEAST HONDURAS/EAST
NICARAGUA EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS WITH THE SHEAR LINE. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS/NORTH HONDURAS/BELIZE AND QUINTANA ROO. IN CENTRAL
CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15MM WITH THE
FRONT...WHILE THE SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN FAR
SOUTHEAST CUBA AND NORTHEAST JAMAICA. ON THURSDAY EXPECT
01-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL
CUBA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER CONVERGENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND
THE WET-TO-DRY SEASONAL TRANSITION...THE DISTRIBUTION OF
PRECIPITATION IS RAPIDLY EVOLVING IN THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN...NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CARIBBEAN AND PAPAGAYO LOW-LEVEL
JETS...EXPECT DAILY PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN FROM
SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA INTO NORTHWEST PANAMA. THIS WILL
FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM ON TUESDAY FOCUSING IN
WEST PANAMA AND EAST COSTA RICA. EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS ON
WEDNESDAY SHIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA AND EAST COSTA
RICA. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS TO CLUSTER IN SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION...EXPECT GEENERALLY ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION. THIS EXTENDS INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES...WHICH WILL
BE PERSISTENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
IN SOUTH AMERICA...THE ITCZ HAS RAPIDLY MEANDERED SOUTH. THIS IS
STIMULATING THE DRYING TREND IN THE ORINOQUIA...TOGETHER WITH THE
REFORMATION OF THE ORINOQUIA LOW-LEVEL JET. IN THE PACIFIC...THE
ITCZ WILL STIMULATE CONVECTION ON A DAILY BASIS IN SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL WESTERN COLOMBIA. EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM
ON TUESDAY DECREASING TO MAXIMA OF 20-35MM THEREAFTER.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 28/00 28/12 29/00 29/12 30/00 30/12 01/00 01/12
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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