513
FXCA20 KWBC 292017
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
316 PM EST WED NOV 29 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 29 NOV 2023 AT 2015 UTC: THE MID-UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES HAVE ESTABLISHED NORTH OF 18N. EMBEDDED IN
THESE WESTERLIES...A TRAIN OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES CONTINUES
PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE ASSOCIATE WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARIES. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING... A FRONT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA INTO A WEAKENING BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL GUATEMALA/CHIVELA PASS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN MEXICO ALONG
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...NORTH CUBA. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED ALONG 22N 60W...24N 70W AND JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO EXPECTED. ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING IT IS FORECAST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CUBA...GULF OF
HONDURAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL HONDURAS...TO THEN LOSE DEFINITION. ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECT ENHANCED CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
REGION WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDESTORMS WILL PRODUCE 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FROM SOUTHERN QUINTANA ROO AND BELIZE/NORTHERN
GUATEMALA INTO MOST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS. ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
BAHAMAS AND IN CENTRAL CUBA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
ON THURSDAY EXPECT MAXIMA UNDER 10MM/DAY IN CENTRAL CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA UNDER 10MM IN MOST OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NORTH INTO ELEUTHERA.
A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHERN MEXICO ON FRIDAY...TO
EXTEND ACROSS FAR SOUTH TEXAS...SOUTH COAHUILA AND EAST CHIHUAHUA.
HOWEVER...EXPECT NO PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT GIVEN LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL
FAVOR WIDESPREAD ASCENT ONCE AGAIN IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MEXICO
ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR ELEVATED CONVECTION AND
PRECIPITATION...FORECAST TO PRODUCE AMOUNTS OF 01-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM IN MOST OF THE REGION.
THE MJO CONTINUES UPPER CONVERGENT OVER THE REGION...WHICH IS
AIDING WITH THE RAPID WET-TO-DRY SEASON TRANSITION IN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. NEVERTHELESS...THIS MEANS AN ENHANCED
CARIBBEAN LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH...IN TERM...ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF SOUTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. ON WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA/NORTHEAST COSTA RICA AND
IN WEST PANAMA. THIS EXTENDS INTO THE AZUERO PENINSULA GIVEN
WESTWARD MIGRATION OF THE PANAMANIAN LOW ON WEDNESDAY. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST CLUSTERING IN SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA/FAR NORTHEAST COSTA RICA...WHERE EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN SOUTHEAST COSTA RICA AND BOCAS DEL TORO
EXPECT MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. THIS DECREASES AFTERWARDS.
ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN...EXPECT RATHER CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS PARTIALLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...AND THE LARGE SCALE UPPER CONVERGENT MJO.
FURTHEMORE...THE INCREASE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC IS AIDING WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF LOW-LEVEL JETS.
THIS INCLUDES THE NOCTURNAL ORINOQUIA LOW-LEVEL JET...WHICH
GENERALLY FAVORS A DRYING IN THE ORINOQUIA BUT ENHANCED CONVECTION
IN THE AMAZON OF PERU AND ECUADOR.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 30/00 30/12 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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