996
FXCA20 KWBC 301832
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
132 PM EST THU NOV 30 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 30 NOV 2023 AT 1800 UTC: CYCLOGENESIS IS
OCCURRING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE USA ON THURSDAY. THIS IS
ORGANIZING A SURFACE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SOUTH AND
ENTER NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY ON FRIDAY MONING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THE FRONT IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTH
TEXAS...SOUTH COAHUILA...NORTH DURANGO...EASTERN CHIHUAHUA. BY
SATURDAY EVENING IT IS FORECAST ALONG SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...SOUTHERN NUEVO LEON. INITIALLY
THE FRONT WILL HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION DUE TO
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HOWEVER...ENHANCED UPSLOPE IN CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM FROMSATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO...EXPECT UNSEASONABLY WET CONDITIONS AS THE
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST CONTINUES ENHANCING THE
SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET ACROSS SOUTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OF THE USA. AS MID-UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTERACTS WITH
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC...EXPECT SCATTERED ELEVATED
CONVECTION AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL MEXICO ON A DAILY BASIS. ON THURSDAY...THIS WILL FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT MAXIMA
GENERALLY UNDER 10MM/DAY. ON SATURDAY EXPECT AN INCREASE TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDS TO THE EAST FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC ALONG
25N 60W...24N 70W...INTO A WEAKENING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REORGANIZE
AND MEANDER SOUTH ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT
ALONG 22N FROM 55W INTO 22N 68W...26N 75W...JUST NORTHWEST OF
GRAND ABACO IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. BY SATURDAY EVENING EXPECT
THE FRONT ALONG 20N 60W...TURKS AND CAICOS...AND ALONG THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS INTO GRAND ABACO. IN THE MID-LEVELS...THE REGION WILL BE
PERSISTENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...FORECAST
TO CENTER OVER CUBA DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. THIS WILL
LIMIT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. ON THURSDAY EXPECT
MAXIMA UNDER 10MM IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. ON BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
MAXIMA UNDER 10MM/DAY IN MOST OF THE BAHAMAS.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY RAPIDLY OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION...THE TROUGH WILL ERODE THE TRADE WIND CAP ALLOWING
FOR AN INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW TRADE WIND
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL RATES. ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY INTO THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY IN THE 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM RANGE...ALTHOUGH VERY ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
REGIONS WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT BECOMES PROMINENT.
THE ACCELERATED TRADES IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO FAVOR MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN BASINS OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA. ON FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTHERN COSTA
RICA/SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST. THIS DECREASES THEREAFTER. IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED GIVEN DRIER AIR ENTERING FROM
THE CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHAN CED EASTERLY AND
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN THE AMAZON BASIN TO THE SOUTH OF 01N/02N ...AND IN THE
PACIFIC BASIN OF SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR...WHERE EXPECT
MAXIMA GENERALLY IN THE 15-40MM/DAY RANGE.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 01/00 01/12 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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