754
FXCA20 KWBC 011252
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
751 AM EST FRI DEC 01 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI DEC 01/12UTC:
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS ADJUSTED AND IS NOW SUGGESTING NEAR NORMAL
MOISTURE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN A SHARP DECREASE IN
MOISTURE ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE SUGGESTED IN
THE GENERAL RAINFALL PATTERN. BRIEF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN PR AND THE USVI FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. VERY BRIEF CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...DOMINATING THE GENERAL WIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF PR/USVI
WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH AND OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY...AS
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. THIS IS THE MAIN REASON FOR THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A SFC
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON
MONDAY...CAUSING A SECONDARY PEAK IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS OF MONDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
IN THE MID LEVELS...A HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AND
PROMOTE STABILITY OVER THE CARIBBEAN REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON TODAY...AS IT MOVES EAST AND AMPLIFIES OVER
THE LEEWARDS THIS WEEKEND...THEN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW
NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THE EGDI FORECAST ALGORITHM IS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SHALLOW
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AND ONLY A SLIGHT RISK OF VERY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE TWIN ALGORITHM SUGGESTS THAT A TRADE WIND
INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT AT AROUND THE 900-800 HPA LEVEL INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH THE INVERSION POSSIBLY ERODING THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.6 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT WILL
HAVE BRIEF PEAKS LATE SATURDAY AND THEN ALSO ON MONDAY WITH VALUES
NEAR 1.7 INCHES.
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...DAILY RAINFALL BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.5 INCHES
ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS NORTH AND EASTERN PR...WILE HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST FOR THE USVI. THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL
FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO WOULD
HAVE AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN. THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA ARE
FORECAST BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75 INCHES.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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