158
FXCA20 KWBC 011620
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1120 AM EST FRI DEC 01 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN 01 DEC 2023 AT 1620 UTC: IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
RIDGE CENTERS OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA/GULF OF HONDURAS AND
EXTENDS INTO THE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGHS AND JETS AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-TROPOSPHERIC SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL
CONSTRAIN AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. TO THE EAST AND IN THE MID-LEVELS...A RIDGE
CENTERS OVER CUBA BUT EXTENDS OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN. AS EXPECTED FOR DECEMBER...THE TRADE WIND CAP AND
ASSOCIATED DRY MID-LEVELS CONTINUE ORGANIZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE...EXPECT MOSTLY SHALLOW
CONVECTION AND LIMITED ACCUMULATION IN ALL OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA TO THE NORTH OF 03/04N.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A SURFACE FRONT IS PROPAGATING SLOWLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. BY FRIDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ALONG SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...CENTRAL TAMAULIPAS...CENTRAL NUEVO LEON. BY SATURDAY
EVENING EXPECT IT ALONG SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...27N 95W...NORTH
VERACRUZ/NORTH HIDALGO...SAN LUIS POTOSI. BY SUNDAY EVENING EXPECT
THE FRONT ALONG NORTH FLORIDA...26N 90W...23N 95W...WEST
TABASCO/CHIAPAS...20N 100W IN CENTRAL MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT
WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BASIN ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER JET
DYNAMICS OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN MEXICO WILL FAVOR A
WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MEXICO THROUGH THE CYCLE AS WELL. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL MEXICO TO PRODUCE MAXIMA UNDER
10MM/DAY. ON SATURDAY...THIS INCREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15MM IN MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MEXICO. ALSO ON
SATURDAY...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES PROPAGATING SOUTH...THE
ASSOCIATED NORTES WILL ENCOUNTER THE CENTRAL SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER EXCEEDING 50MM. THIS
WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM RANGE. ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT ENHANCEMENT BY THE UPPER TROUGH TO FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS/NORTH VERACRUZ. FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN CHIAPAS AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTHERN
OAXACA...CENTRAL VERACRUZ AND TABASCO. ALSO A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-30MM N THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER FRONT IS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...AIDED BY STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY TRADES. BY FRIDAY
EVENING EXPECT IT ALONG 23N FROM 55W INTO 70W...26N 75W...30N 78W.
BY SATURDAY EVENING IT IS FORECAST ALONG 20N FROM 59W INTO THE
TURKS AND CAICOS...INTO A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ALONG THE ENTIRE
BAHAMAS CHAIN. BY SUNDAY EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ALONG 18N 50W
INTO 18N 60W...20N 63N...23N 66W. THIS SYSTEM WILL ONLY FAVOR
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FORECAST TO PRODUCE MAXIMA UNDER
10MM/DAY IN THE BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THE PREDOMINANT
COLD ADVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN FAVORED BY
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADES IS HIGHLIGHTING THE COVERAGE OF LIGHT
SHALLOW TRADE WIND CONVECTION. AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. THE COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE TRADE WIND CAP SOME. THIS WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF TRADE WIND
CONVECTION YIELDING TO SCATTERED ACCUMULATION PRODUCING MAXIMA
NEAR 15MM IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NORTHERN GUYANA/EASTERN
VENEZUELA. THE ATLANTIC ITCZ HAS MEANDERED RAPIDLY SOUTH AND NOT
ENTERS THE CONTINENT NEAR FAR NORTHERN BRAZIL...WHICH IS ALSO
YIELDING TO CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA...EXPECT ALSO
LIMITED ACCUMULATION ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT UPPER
CONVERGENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MJO. THIS WILL
LIMIT THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS TO SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND WESTERN
ECUADOR.
POSITIONS OF TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC
TYPE SOF INIT 02/00 02/12 03/00 03/12 04/00 04/12 05/00 05/12
NONE
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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