372
FXUS01 KWBC 030751
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 AM EST SUN DEC 03 2023
VALID 12Z SUN DEC 03 2023 - 12Z TUE DEC 05 2023
...A MULTI-DAY ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
NORTHWEST AND ROCKIES WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY WITH RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST & WINTRY WEATHER FROM PARTS
OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...GENERALLY MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOWER 48...
A SERIES OF ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WHILE
HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY.
UNLIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS IN THE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHEN HEAVY
SNOW WAS THE MOST IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION TYPE, THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM ACCOMPANYING TODAY'S ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL TRACK FARTHER
NORTH. THIS WILL STREAM MILDER AIR INTO WESTERN OREGON AND
WASHINGTON, FORCING RAIN TO BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.
RAIN WILL FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES IN AREAS THAT NOW CONTAINS FRESH
SNOWPACK, MOST NOTABLY IN WESTERN OREGON. THIS IS A RECIPE FOR
MINOR TO MODERATE RIVER FLOODING, AS WELL AS FLASH FLOODING. WPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE OREGON COAST AND THE CASCADE
RANGE IN BOTH OREGON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
BETWEEN ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS SUNDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER ARRIVES MONDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY TO OCCUR IN
WESTERN WASHINGTON. WPC ISSUED A PAIR OF SLIGHT RISKS FOR THE
OLYMPIC PENINSULA, NORTHWEST OREGON, AND THE WASHINGTON CASCADES.
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, PORTIONS OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
CAN EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM 3-7" OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. FARTHER INLAND, THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL IDAHO, THE TETONS IN WESTERN WYOMING, THE WASATCH IN
NORTHERN UTAH, AND THE COLORADO ROCKIES HAVE MODERATE-TO-HIGH
CHANCES (50-80%) OF RECEIVING GREATER THAN 12" OF SNOWFALL. MOST
OF THE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH LIGHTER
AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY.
FARTHER EAST, A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES IS SET TO GENERATE PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE GREAT
LAKES AND AS FAR WEST AS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING. IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TODAY. IN
THE NORTHEAST, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ON NORTH ALONG THE NORTHEAST'S I-95 CORRIDOR. IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. SNOW
WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY
MORNING FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MAINE. LATEST WPC PROBABILITIES SHOW A HIGH CHANCE (>70%)
FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS >8" IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND INTO CENTRAL MAINE. THE WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX
(WSSI) DEPICTS MODERATE IMPACTS IN THESE AREAS, WHILE LIGHTER
AMOUNTS (>4" AMOUNTS) HAVE A HIGH CHANCE (>70%) OF OCCURRING IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS, THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, AND
INTO NORTHERN MAINE. MINOR IMPACTS ARE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS
ACCORDING TO THE WSSI. EXPECT HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THESE
AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW MAY
STICK AROUND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AS THE STORM SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY OUT TO SEA ON
TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE, A FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE, MOST OF
THE CONTINENTAL U.S. REMAINS DEVOID OF FRIGID OR WINTER-LIKE
AIR-MASSES. MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC ARE
LIKELY TO WAKE UP TO RECORD BREAKING MILD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY. THE SAME IS ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP
IN THE WEST BY TUESDAY, BUT COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MAKE A
RETURN IN THE EAST BY MID-WEEK.
MULLINAX
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