657
FXCA20 KWBC 041241
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
741 AM EST MON DEC 04 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI DEC 04/12UTC:
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW INTO TUESDAY HAS
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PR...AS WELL AS THE USVI RECEIVING SOME
RAINFALL. WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE VERY DRY. FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORKWEEK...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THOUGH STALL NORTH OF PR/USVI...POSSIBLY CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF
RAINFALL. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TUESDAY...THEN DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY TO BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THERE IS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CAUSING
ESE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS INTO MIDWEEK...A SFC LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL
CAUSE A DECREASE IN WINDS EARLY ON THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BE ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. A WEAK MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA THIS WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE ATLANTIC...IT MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH...AND THE MID LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK AND ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST FOR
MOST OF THE WORKWEEK. ALTHOUGH IT COULD WEAKEN BY THE LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN AN UPPER TROUGH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE LEEWARDS BY
FRIDAY.
UP TO A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST TODAY ACROSS EASTERN
PR...WITH UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH ELSEWHERE. TUESDAY WILL HAVE
LESS RAINFALL COVERAGE AS WELL AS LOWER AMOUNTS...EASTERN PR
RECEIVING THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS BUT STILL GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER
OF AN INCH. WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO RAIN...THEN THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD HAVE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STALLS NORTH OF
PR/USVI. THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO WOULD HAVE AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN. THE
USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.75
INCHES. THE WESTERN HALF OF OR IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE AROUND A
TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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