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FXCA20 KWBC 051247
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
747 AM EST TUE DEC 05 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI DEC 05/12UTC:
THE EXPECTED RAINFALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS HAS EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN PR RECEIVING SOME RAINFALL EACH DAY...BUT WESTERN
PR AND THE USVI MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
APPEARS TO BE VERY DRY...BUT A PATCH OF MOISTURE COULD MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORKWEEK...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST...POSSIBLY STALLING JUST NORTH OF PR/USVI...BUT CAUSING
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF RAINFALL.
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL EARLY TODAY
BUT WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WELL BELOW
NORMAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY
THURSDAY...THEN REMAINING NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CAUSING
ESE WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS. A SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY...THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL CAUSE A
DECREASE IN WINDS EARLY ON THURSDAY...BUT ANOTHER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BE ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. A WEAK MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
AREA THIS WEEK. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC BUT
IT WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHILE THE MID
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE LIGHT
AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK...HOWEVER THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A QUICK UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY...THOUGH THE IMPACT SEEMS TO BE
MINIMAL CONSIDERING THE MID LEVEL STABILITY EXPECTED.
THE RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS SUGGESTS VERY MODEST
AMOUNTS. UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY ACROSS EASTERN PR...WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN ELSEWHERE.
THE RAINFALL COVERAGE MAY INCREASE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...BUT THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
BE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS EACH DAY ACROSS MOST AREAS.
THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO WOULD HAVE AROUND 0.75 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN.
THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.50
INCHES. THE WESTERN HALF OF PR IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE AROUND 0.25
TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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