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FXCA20 KWBC 061252
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
751 AM EST WED DEC 06 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI DEC 06/12UTC:
THE OVERALL FORECAST RAINFALL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
CONTINUES TO HAVE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PR RECEIVING SOME
RAINFALL EACH DAY...THOUGHT THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO SURPASS A QUARTER OF AN INCH EACH DAY FOR THE MOST PART. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST BUT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF PR AS IT
WEAKENS. THIS WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO BE UP AND DOWN BETWEEN NEAR
NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL IN PATCHES FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARDS TO
THE OVERALL PATTERN. A SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TODAY...THEN MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY AS IT STRENGTHENS...CAUSING WINDS TO DECREASE ON THURSDAY.
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS...THEN WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AS THE SFC HIGH
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. A WEAK MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ATLANTIC BUT IT
WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WHILE THE MID
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE LIGHT
AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK...HOWEVER THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A QUICK UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THOUGH THE IMPACT
SEEMS TO BE MINIMAL CONSIDERING THE MID LEVEL STABILITY EXPECTED.
THE RAINFALL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS SUGGESTS MODEST
AMOUNTS. DAILY RAINFALL MAX UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR SO IS
FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PR...WITH UP TO THE SAME AMOUNTS
ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN PR THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE USVI ARE FORECAST UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO EACH
DAY IN BRIEF SHOWERS. THE 5-DAY TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST SUGGESTS
THAT EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO WOULD HAVE AROUND 0.75
TO 1 INCH OF RAIN. THE USVI...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA ARE FORECAST
BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.50 INCHES. CENTRAL TO WESTERN PR PR IS FORECAST
TO ALSO RECEIVE AROUND 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN.
ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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